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NBA rookie status report: The battle for Rookie of the Year, Scoot Henderson's struggles and more – 247Sports
We have reached championship week of the NBA’s In-Season Tournament. The inaugural tournament will conclude with its championship game on Saturday Dec. 9 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The ending of this tournament signals that close to 25% of the regular season has been played. These 20 or so games have given us a good look at this year’s rookie class. Instead of ranking the rookies or doing some type of “Too Early All-Rookie Team”, we’re going to take a look at some of the biggest storylines that have followed this rookie class since draft night.
Right now, the race for the Rookie of the Year only includes two players: Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama.
Of course, these two players were not drafted in the same year. Holmgren was selected with the second overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, but missed all of last season due to an injury. As for Wembanyama, he was labeled a generational prospect years before he even reached the NBA in 2023.
Wembanyama came to the NBA with a perhaps an unprecedented amount of hype. Through just 18 games, he’s been able to live up to the expectations. He’s averaging 19 points, 10 boards, almost 3 assists, 3 blocks and just over a steal per game. He’s doing this shooting 44% from the floor, 83% from the line and making almost a 1.5 threes per game.
His durability has been just as impressive as his numbers. Wembanyama played in 18 straight games for the Spurs before missing Friday night’s game which was the the second game of a back-to-back.
In short, Wemby has lived up to the hype even though the Spurs have struggled to translate his production into wins.
The fact Wemby has produced at such a high level and is still in a competition for the Rookie of the Year award may be the biggest surprise of the rookie class. However, Chet Holmgren has been so good for OKC that he may be the favorite to win the award.
Holmgren might have been drafted second overall in 2022, but he was at the top of many boards (mine included) and he’s proving why he was so coveted. He’s averaging about 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and over 2 blocks per game for a Thunder team that is currently second in the Western Conference.
He has proven his skillset and has been able to change the game defensively while providing the same competitive spirit he’s had since a recruit.
Durability was a major question mark for Holmgren as well. But so far he’s been as reliable as anyone on the Thunder’s roster, playing in all 19 games with his role and minutes growing as the season continues.
With Wemby and Chet clearly at the top of the rookie class, the race for the All-Rookie team is ultimately down to only three spots. The two of the players who have made the best case for those remaining spots have been aided by being drafted into good fits for their skillsets.
There was no denying on draft night that Jaime Jaquez was an ideal fit for the Miami Heat. He embodied the “Heat Culture”. He’s tough, hard-working and is known for his motor. So, in one sense, it’s not surprising that he’s carved out an immediate role for the Heat. But the size and significance of that role goes beyond what almost anyone expected this early into his career.
Jaquez is playing almost 27 minutes per night and is scoring 11 points on 53/39/79 shooting splits. While there are still some questions about his lateral quickness, it’s clear that he can be part of a thriving defense. Also, that he didn’t get enough credit for how athletic he is during the draft process.
The Heat drafted Jaquez No. 18 overall on draft night. But if we were ranking the rookies, he could make a strong case to be third overall.
The other player who found a notable good fit was Dereck Lively. With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavs have one of the most potent guard tandems in the league. They needed players who could build up their supporting cast and impact the game without having the ball in their hands. Specifically, they needed floor spacing, defense and size. Lively checked two of those boxes as the type of rim-running, lob threat and shot-blocker who fits perfectly in the Mavericks’ line-up.
The fact that he went for 16 and 10 on opening night — achieving the double-double that was so elusive during his time at Duke — illustrated how well he fit into what the Mavs are doing. It also proved that he was every bit the prospect scouts said he was coming out of high school. In fact, it was just two years ago that Lively was the top-ranked prospect in the national high school class of 2022. A year later, he was hearing “overrated” chants. Now, he’s positioned himself to be named to the All-Rookie Team.
There was a time when Victor Wembanyama wasn’t the only prospect in the 2023 draft being associated with the term “generational talent.”
Scoot Henderson began last season (his second with G League Ignite) as the heavy favorite to be the second pick in the draft. Wemby and Scoot were even matched-up in a pair of preseason exhibitions to showcase the perceived top-two picks in the draft.
But Brandon Miller’s breakout year at Alabama, a somewhat lackluster season from Henderson and the fact that the Hornets (who already had Lamelo Ball at the point) landed the second pick in the draft, resulted in Scoot slipping to Portland as the third pick.
When Henderson arrived, the Blazers immediately put the ball in his hand. Scoot was charged with replacing arguably the best player in franchise history in Damian Lillard. If that weren’t enough pressure, Anfernee Simons’ injury took away the team’s most proven scorer.
Scoot only played only five games before going down with an ankle injury. But those five contests did not go as great as most of us expected. Since his return, Henderson has been showing marginal signs of progress but has been regulated to a bench role. He still appears to be very far away from being the star the Blazers thought they were getting.
He’s as strong and as explosive as expected. He’s often able to get to his spots, but the shooting has been very problematic (he’s shooting 34% from the field and 22% from three). Also, he’s having turnover issues and problems with his overall decision-making.
There’s obviously no reason for anyone in Portland to panic. Scoot is still young and there is a lot of reasons to be optimistic about his long-term upside. But the truth of the matter is that the Blazers’ rebuild is contingent on Scoot being a star guard or a serviceable No. 2 option.
Charlotte’s decision at two was considered the first big domino of the draft. They seemed to strongly consider pairing Scoot with LaMelo but ultimately brought Brandon Miller back in for a second workout where he won the job.
He was clearly a better fit with their existing roster. But as I said on draft night, drafting for fit at the top of the draft is never a good idea. Charlotte will ultimately be judged by picking the player that goes on to have the better career, regardless of what the rest of their roster looked like at the time.
Two months into the season, it looks like they made the right choice. But Brandon Miller still isn’t in the same category as Wemby and Chet. He’s averaging 14 points, 4 boards and a couple of assists per night while shooting 46% from the floor and 38% from three. He has rediscovered the potent mid-range scoring ability he showed in high school but he struggles to put much pressure on the rim.
He’s played his best basketball as of late, though. He’s 17.5 points per game in his last six contests while scoring 18 or more points in three of those games. Prior to this run, he had only scored 18 or more points in just one of his first 10 games.
The key has been the three-point shooting. He’s 17 of 32 from three during this stretch after starting the season at 10-39 from three. In the six games prior to the run, he was just 2 of 20 from that range. Unlocking his shooting will force harder close-outs from opposing defenders which will creating opportunities for Miller to attack defenders on the move.
The plan is for the Hornets to rebuild with this group. But to do so, they’ll need Miller, LaMelo and Mark Williams to become the best version of themselves. The hope is that Miller’s current hot-streak is signs of his rapid improvement.
Amen Thompson was the better of the two twins. That was the consensus among NBA Draft media, despite the fact that it was Ausar Thompson who won most of the hardware through two seasons at Overtime Elite.
But when NBA scouts were stationed in Houston last year for the stretch between the McDonald’s All-American Game and the Final Four, I reported that I was hearing just the opposite. The majority of the scouts I spoke with actually preferred Ausar to his brother. At the NBA Combine in May, it was a similar sentiment.
Amen ended up going one spot ahead of his twin brother, but it has been Ausar who has been far more impactful through the first quarter of the NBA season.
He’s one of the most talented and committed defenders of his draft class. As a result, he has earned a big role from Detroit’s new head coach Monty Williams. Thompson has started 18 of his first 20 games. Although the shooting has been downright bad from the three-point line, Thompson has provided some secondary playmaking, shown his explosive athleticism as a finisher and has been one of the best perimeter rebounders in the league (9.1 boards/28.3 minutes).
But, the Pistons have been a bit of a dumpster fire. They’re currently the worst team in the NBA and in the midst of a 17-game losing streak.
Turnovers and spacing (a by-product of shooting) have been the biggest problems offensively. Thompson hasn’t exactly helped in either of those areas.
The biggest concern for Detroit is whether or not it current young core fits together. Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Thompson are all 22-years-old or younger and they account for top-five picks in three consecutive drafts. None of them are particularly good outside shooters.
So, yes, Ausar has been the better of the two twins, so far. But that question isn’t even the one that matters right now. Instead, we should be asking if these three players fit together as a trio that the Pistons should build around.
We’ve already talked about how the Heat and the Mavericks have maximized the returns of their picks. But it turns out that Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder are still really good at this whole drafting thing too.
They traded up on draft night (swapping picks with Dallas) to get Cason Wallace. This is the type of ideal win-win that works for everyone. Dallas got who they targeted and picked up an additional asset by moving down to where he was still available. OKC got Cason Wallace who has quietly been one of the best guards in this class.
He’s playing 22 minutes per night for the Thunder. He’s as tough and is advanced defensively while also being further along offensively than expected. It’s not the 7.5 points a game that blows anyone away, it’s the 60% shooting from the floor, 52.5% from three and 85% from the free-throw line that leaves you stunned. Also, he has close to a three-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio.
In short: He may be picking his spots, but he’s picking the right spots.
The Pelicans appear to have found some real value with Jordan Hawkins at the No. 14 sport. He’s averaged 13 points through his first 21 games while connecting on 37% of his threes. These aren’t just spot-up threes, though. Hawkins has filled in for CJ McCollum during his 13 games absence and has been running off the same type of screening action as the veteran. While McCollum’s return to the line-up may ultimately mean a lesser role for Hawkins, he’s shown that the Hornets may well have find their successor for the 32-year-old scoring guard.
Another team that got good value in the backcourt is Detroit. They made a move with the Grizzlies to get to the No. 25 spot where they grabbed Marcus Sasser. He’s knocked down 40% of his threes, has shown flashes of being an instant offense-type of scorer off the bench and is the one young guard with real gravity from deep for Detroit.
Orlando had the surprise pick of the night when they took Jett Howard at No. 11 overall. That was far higher than most (myself included) had the Michigan freshman. The fact that he’s only played in 5 games, scored a total of 2 points and has gone 0-8 from behind the three-point line has proven that the gamble will pay off.
Speaking of shooters, Toronto had their choice of them at No. 13. They elected to take Gradey Dick over Jordan Hawkins. I was on record leading up to the draft stating that I thought Hawkins was the best movement shooter in the draft. Toronto apparently disagreed. While Hawkins has thrived, Dick has struggled. He shot under 25% from three through 15 games and was sent to the G League last week.
Two of the teams targeting four-men, Indiana (who drafted Jarace Walker) and Utah (who picked Taylor Hendricks), have yet to see any return on their investment. Neither lottery pick has been able to crack the rotation. Instead, they are spending time in the G League. While no other four-men have necessarily emerged thus far, players like Wallace, Lively, Hawkins, Jaquez and Keyonte George were all still on the board at the time of these picks.
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