NBA season predictions 2023-24: Finals winner, MVP and more – NBC Bay Area

The NBA offseason got spicy at the perfect time.
Damian Lillard is making his bucks in Milwaukee, Jrue Holiday will sport a different shade of green and Joel Embiid — albeit the right thought process — thinks the Sixers are the team to beat out East.
Preseason has hinted at Victor Wembanyama being as good as advertised, and there’s plenty more to come in San Antonio.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Toronto Raptors went unbeaten in preseason, while the Sacramento Kings relatively underwhelmed with a 1-4 record. Could these all be foreshadowing how the new season will unfold?
Let’s predict how the 2023-24 NBA campaign will go before it officially tips off:
The Denver Nuggets showed the formula of a title-winning and contending team: superstars who defy the opposition’s tactics offensively and deploy a foundation of switchable defenders who are disciplined and can handle multiple positions.

Losing Bruce Brown stings, but they’ll still be in contention as long as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray can stay healthy.
Other teams who fit the bill to a reliable and consistent quality are the Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. The Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, Memphis Grizzlies, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks are in the tier below due to injury and off-court reasons or they need to splash and trade for star.
Last year, it was a Nuggets-Bucks prediction in the Finals. This year, let’s go with the Bucks and Suns (yes, the defensive shouts for the latter are legit, but maybe they increase their levels like Denver last year), granted both teams stay healthy. And in this scenario, the Bucks win in six.
Wembanyama is the obvious headliner for the San Antonio Spurs, with last year’s No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren also in contention after he missed the entire campaign with an injury.
These two names should be ones to monitor, too. The first is Scoot Henderson, who went to the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 3 overall. Though Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe are also on the depth chart, Henderson possesses the highest ceiling of the trio and has the chance to make a significant contribution sooner a la Paolo Banchero last season with the Orlando Magic. The key will be shot efficiency, but someone will have to put up numbers with Damian Lillard gone, and Henderson could take minutes early.
The other is Sasha Vezenkov of the Kings. The 27-year-old wing is coming to the NBA as the reigning EuroLeague MVP after averaging 17.6 points per game last season with Olympiacos and shooting around 38% from deep. He’s shown some defensive weaknesses in preseason, but offensively, he could be the needle mover for a Kings team that didn’t make any splashes after being the No. 3 seed last season.
If Wembanyama’s preseason play carries into the regular season, this section is a wrap.
Will this finally be the year for Luka Doncic? Or will big men dominate the conversation again? Depending on how the Sixers fare, Embiid may be out of the conversation after his win last season. And if the Nuggets and Bucks maintain their dominance, Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo will once again lead the discourse.
If the Suns piece together a strong season — which are the expectations — one of the three main options in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker or Bradley Beal will likely warrant a nod.
But if the Bucks are to go up a level with the Lillard acquisition, one has to think Antetokounmpo is the favorite in that scenario.
Lauri Markkanen’s rise with the Utah Jazz was surely not foreseen by many before the season, so who could be similar cases this year? Mikal Bridges could dominate headlines if he gets his numbers with the Brooklyn Nets as he did to end last season, while Sharpe could be another in the Trail Blazers backcourt if he breaks out.
Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey make sense if the Oklahoma City Thunder go up another level after a promising run to the play-in games last year.
But Kings’ Keegan Murray might be the sneaky pick here. He averaged 12.2/4.6/1.2 last season on a 45/41/76 shooting split, and sophomores are usually one group of players who can increase their stats. Sacramento is a team that usually hopes for internal growth, and Murray could play a role if the Kings are to continue their ascension.
Jaren Jackson Jr. took the crown last season and could very well do so again as the focal point of the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense. Instead, let’s pivot to Cleveland Cavaliers center Evan Mobley. The 2021 No. 3 overall pick has more levels to reach through two seasons and has been a great rim presence in Cleveland’s tall frontcourt look.
The Cavaliers suffered a disappointing playoff exit in which Jarrett Allen admitted the lights were too bright, but Mobley’s potential in those aspects could change that.
Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler could also make noise here based off his late emergence last season, while Rudy Gobert of the Timberwolves usually is a mainstay for regular-season defensive success.
The Kings, Cavaliers and New Orleans Pelicans made this section last year, and all three made waves up until Zion Williamson’s absence caught up with the Pelicans. The Pelicans will remain a sleeper team this year as long as they stay healthy.
This year the sleeper picture isn’t quite as clear. The Oklahoma City Thunder could rise up the Western Conference ladder if they find the right infusion of youth in their rotation, while the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic could make noise out East if their players make strides. Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker will be key for Indiana while Orlando will need 6-foot-7 rookie point guard Anthony Black to look promising alongside Banchero and Franz Wagner.
And this might sound crazy, but maybe the Spurs have something up their sleeves if they can manage Wembanyama right. Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan should do their parts, and if they can get a star guard in (at least next season if not this one), look out.
Mike Brown got a nod last season and he rightfully won it by helping end the Kings’ playoff drought. Now, it all depends on who makes the leaps no one saw coming. Willie Green makes sense if the Pelicans stay healthy, while Mark Daigneault could be a candidate should the Thunder sneak into a playoff spot.
Another team that hasn’t been mentioned is the Toronto Raptors, who severely underperformed last year despite a roster stacked with talent on paper. If new head coach Darko Rajakovic revives them in place of Nick Nurse, he’d be a worthy candidate, too.

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