Seven NBA Observations on the Suns, Superstar Trade Rumors, and the Draft – The Ringer

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Bradley Beal is the first big name to change teams this summer. Will Damian Lillard or Zion Williamson be the next? Plus, my thoughts on the Wizards, the Scoot Henderson vs. Brandon Miller debate, and more.
It’s officially NBA draft week, but thanks to Sunday’s news we’re leading with a superstar trade! Let’s get into the Phoenix Suns–Washington Wizards blockbuster, plus everything else happening around the NBA with the draft and free agency around the corner.
Maybe the Suns didn’t need Bradley Beal. You could argue the last thing the Suns needed was more offense with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant already in position. But make no mistake, Beal is the best player the Suns could have acquired this offseason. There is no better free agent they could have signed. No better first-round draft pick, of which they have none. No better return for Deandre Ayton, whom they can still move.
Yes, Beal has some overlapping skills with Durant and Booker. Yes, he does nothing to solve their playmaking or defensive problems. But he was the best target and the Suns got him for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, second-rounders, and pick swaps. Trading a grab bag for Beal was a no-brainer for the all-in Suns.
What new team owner Mat Ishbia and his front office does from here will determine whether the offseason as a whole is a win for the franchise, though. The Suns have a lot of work to do with only four players currently under guaranteed contracts—Beal, Durant, Booker, and Ayton—totaling $161.5 million. Cam Payne and Ish Wainright have non-guaranteed deals. Add them in, and the Suns will be at $170 million—above the first apron in the new CBA, and nearing the second apron, which prevents teams from using their taxpayer midlevel exception and signing buyout players. It won’t be easy to fill out the team, and no matter what they do, they’ll be a second-apron team if they keep Ayton.
Trading Ayton is the key to filling out the rest of the roster. In an ideal world, the Suns would send him to a team with cap space for draft picks and cheap players. Then they could use the midlevel exception ($12 million) on a wing such as Kyle Kuzma, who would fill a need as a versatile defender and rebounder. Some candidates with cap space in need of a big are: Houston ($59.1 million), San Antonio ($36.8M), and Oklahoma City ($32.2M). The Rockets want a roller to fit Ime Udoka’s offense. The Spurs and Thunder could use a beefy big like Ayton next to their lanky centers.
Will Portland finally give in and trade Dame Lillard? We’re keeping a close watch on all of the biggest free agents, trade targets, retirement bluffers, and more in our new offseason tracker.
Who else would want Ayton? As frustrating as he is, he will turn 25 next month. A change of scenery could be good for the no. 1 overall pick to tap into the upside everyone saw when he helped the Suns make a run to the 2021 Finals. The Mavericks have been shopping the 10th pick in Thursday’s draft and need a center. Perhaps there’s a match there. Ayton for the 10th pick, Maxi Kleber, and Davis Bertans? Then the Suns could use the 10th pick on a player ready to defend at a pro level (such as Taylor Hendricks, Bilal Coulibaly, or Cason Wallace). Or they could trade down with a team that might want to consolidate multiple draft picks, such as the Jazz (16, 28), Nets (21, 22), Pacers (26, 29, 32), or Hornets (27, 34, 39, 41). Taking a rookie, or multiple rookies, may make little sense on the surface for the contending Suns. But hitting in the draft will be critical under the new CBA, and this class is deep with potential 3-and-D wings. Going this route would sure beat scouring the veteran minimum market for retreads like Wesley Matthews and Danny Green.
No matter what the Suns do with Ayton, what matters most is for the franchise to support Beal, Booker, and Durant with players who can effectively space the floor on offense and defend opponents’ best players. Last postseason, Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie were ignored by the Nuggets defense in the second round. If the Suns can leverage Ayton into landing upgrades on the wing, then they should go super cheap at the center position: bring back Jock Landale and Bismack Biyombo, and add whoever else to bolster the big rotation. The way to beat Denver won’t be to match Nikola Jokic’s size. It’ll be to kill the Nuggets from the perimeter with speed and quickness, which appears to be the way the Suns are trying to build.
Odds are the Suns’ offense will be unstoppable since Beal, Booker, and Durant are all so talented with or without the ball and they can share the playmaking responsibility. This level of versatility and selflessness is precisely what makes Phoenix’s situation so much different than KD’s failed Big Three in Brooklyn, which was doomed by a stationary James Harden and an unreliable Kyrie Irving. Booker especially seems ready to take on an increased role running the offense, considering how much more crisp the offense was with him last season instead of Paul, who can’t return to the Suns even if he’s waived.
New Suns head coach Frank Vogel won a championship in his first year with the Lakers with a veteran-laden roster that included a sprinkle of youth (Kuzma and Alex Caruso). It’ll be fascinating to see what type of system Vogel constructs around his new stars. But it’s impossible to assess until we know who else the front office adds.
No matter what, the new Suns Big Three has a lot to prove. Durant still hasn’t won a ring without the help of the Warriors. After two career years without John Wall, Beal has been a disappointment since he got paid. And Booker has yet to finish the job in the postseason. Joining forces is an opportunity for them to define how they’ll be remembered.
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Well, this is a crappy ending to the Beal era for the Wizards. They could have traded Beal for a haul ahead of the 2022 trade deadline, but they decided to keep him, give him the supermax, and hand him a no-trade clause that summer. Now all the Wizards got back for their franchise player are scraps and the ghost of Chris Paul. It’s worth noting that the Wizards didn’t want any long-term money coming back in the Beal trade. That’s why they took Paul instead of Ayton. Because of Beal’s no-trade clause, this is really the best they could have done.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski says the Wizards will look to expand their blockbuster with the Suns, and will try to find a contending team that would be interested in Paul. Maybe a sign-and-trade with the Lakers for D’Angelo Russell? If James Harden goes back to Houston, could Paul replace him in Philly? Or maybe send CP3 back home to the Clippers? I’d bet on the latter. As I reported here earlier this month, the Clippers want Paul and he’d make a lot of sense next to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
The Wizards appear headed toward an overdue rebuild. They just hired a new president in Michael Winger, who has been coveted for years by rival teams. Most people around the league don’t think he would’ve taken the gig if he hadn’t been empowered to build however he wants.
The Wizards look like a team that’s finally ready to stink for a few years. It’s ironic that they’ve decided to embrace the draft the year after Victor Wembanyama enters the league. But nonetheless, it gives them a direction entering Thursday’s big night with the eighth pick (let’s hope it’s not cursed). Washington should swing for the fences. Ausar Thompson would be a logical target for them. Thompson is a 6-foot-6 athletic shot creator and a hound on defense. If his shot continues to improve, he has superstar potential, and he currently ranks fourth on my big board. Other logical targets could be Cam Whitmore, Anthony Black, or Bilal Coulibaly. Of those three, Black presents the best balance of safety and upside because, like Ausar, he’s a jumper away from being a potential All-Star.
Washington hasn’t had any home run draft picks in recent years, but does have a collection of solid role players. Corey Kispert and Deni Avdija are coming along. Daniel Gafford is decent. And we’ll see whether Johnny Davis can bounce back after a terrible rookie season. After the draft, the Wizards probably won’t be active this summer aside from looking for new homes for their own free agents, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. Both of them should be in demand in sign-and-trade scenarios, leading to an interesting few weeks ahead for Winger’s first summer as GM for the Beal-less Wiz.
Long after being in the limelight in New York, and just a few years after underwhelming in Dallas, Kristaps Porzingis turned in the best season of his career last year in Washington. Has he resurrected his stock? Porzingis will be only 28 years old next season and has a $36 million player option, making him an attractive target. Victor Wembanyama is going to get all the attention this week, but the original unicorn could help out a contender right now.
Porzingis shot 38.5 percent from 3 last season and blocked 1.5 shots per game. He’s one of the few bigs in the league who can both space the floor and protect the rim. But he’s expanded his game in recent years to become an even more complete player.
One of KP’s issues in the past was scoring inefficiently after putting the ball on the floor. Though he could shoot 3s, he really couldn’t punish teams that closed out on him by attacking the basket off the dribble. But check out his numbers from this past season, according to Second Spectrum:
Porzingis was fourth in points scored per closeout from 2-point range. He used the threat of his shot to draw sprinting defenders behind the arc, before attacking off the bounce, for ferocious dunks, layups, and easy buckets utilizing his size.
Porzingis also scored with great efficiency on post-ups. Here’s a look at the efficiency numbers of the five most effective post scorers last season, according to Second Spectrum:
Porzingis is no longer a stiff. He’s a knockdown 3-point shooter, a capable player off the bounce, and he has figured out how to score from the post. Though turnaround jumpers remain a weapon for him, he’s a lot better at using his size to get into more efficient shots. He’s become less predictable.
On defense, the 7-foot-3 Porzingis has his limitations. He’s not a very switchable player. But he’s great in drop coverage, as the numbers show:
Those are some of the best defenders in basketball alongside Porzingis, who could protect the rim for a contender, allowing a second big to roam. Imagine, say, Bam Adebayo of the Heat in that free-safety role, operating off the ball, kind of like how Jaren Jackson Jr. does for Memphis or Giannis Antetokounmpo does for Milwaukee. Porzingis would give Miami, or another team, a lot of scheme versatility.
Health will always be a concern for Porzingis. But he just had his healthiest season since he was a teenager, logging 65 games for the Wizards. If he opts in to his expiring contract, there’s no long-term risk for a new team. Just upside for a run at the championship.
The Suns won the Beal sweepstakes, but the Wizards star was always the second option for Miami. Damian Lillard is the primary target. As Chris Haynes tweeted Sunday, there is a “genuine belief this could be the offseason the veteran guard seeks a change of scenery.” And the Heat were at the top of Lillard’s own list after he praised Adebayo on a podcast.
Going all in for Beal wouldn’t have made any sense for Miami if Lillard were available. Even though acquiring Dame will be more expensive, he’s the better player, and by far the better fit. The Heat desperately could use his shot creation and clutch play. And though he’s a smaller guard who gets targeted on defense, the Heat have more than enough support at the wing and center spots to cover for him.
So how can they get Lillard to Miami? The Heat are only eligible to trade their first-round picks in 2023, 2028, and 2030 with swaps in 2024, 2027, and 2029. As for players Portland might covet, Tyler Herro is the most valuable asset on the team and Nikola Jovic was drafted in the first round last year, so Miami has some value to give but not a ton. The Heat are also already in danger of exceeding the second tax apron ($179.5 million in total salary), which comes with new restrictions.
A new CBA wrinkle that will make life harder on Miami is lowering the acceptable difference between salaries in a trade. Previously, it was 125 percent, but it will be reduced to only 110 percent on July 1. When that kicks in, trades will require practically equal salaries, making it hard to pull a deal off. Under the new CBA rules, the Heat would have to give up about $41 million in salary to acquire Lillard. Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, and Caleb Martin would work. Or Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Or Lowry and Herro.
The Heat need a player like Lillard. They could also use a better big man than Kevin Love and Cody Zeller. Despite how good Miami’s supporting cast was during the playoffs, it was undersized against the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic overpowered Bam Adebayo. Aaron Gordon pummeled smaller players. Michael Porter Jr. skied over everyone for rebounds. There are pathways for the Heat to acquire both Dame and a center like Porzingis. Before July 1, they could send Lowry to the Wizards for Porzingis, and Herro and Oladipo/Robinson (not to mention a boatload of picks) to the Blazers for Lillard.
The Heat’s Finals run was miraculous. But this offseason the Bucks will get healthy, the Celtics will reload, and other rising teams in the East could emerge. Meanwhile, the Heat are getting old. By next postseason, Jimmy Butler will be 34, Lowry will be 38, and Love will be 35. But after coming so close to a title, you know Pat Riley can smell blood. That’s why it’s time to go all in to make the most of this era.
Monday will be a big day in Charlotte, with the franchise reportedly bringing back Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller for a second workout and interview. This time, though, outgoing owner Michael Jordan will be in attendance.
My understanding is that new Hornets ownership, led by Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall, is disappointed that the sale couldn’t be finalized ahead of the draft. But it is not an adversarial situation, and they will have a say in what the team decides to do with the second pick. Still, for now, Jordan is the final decision-maker as the current owner working with his general manager, Mitch Kupchak.
There’s been a lot of buzz about Miller potentially going second. But after reportedly losing 13 pounds due to mononucleosis, he’s not in the best shape. Miller has underwhelmed in workouts, not showing the same level of “intensity and conditioning” as Henderson, according to Draft Express. And now, Henderson is the betting favorite (-145) to go second after being the underdog as recently as the middle of last week. Have things really changed that quickly?
The nuanced take is that both Miller and Henderson are appropriate picks, and it’s just a matter of how the Hornets envision building around LaMelo Ball. Though Ball is a flashy playmaker, which will always be his primary role, he’s also a super-skilled shooter off the catch. Ball can run off screens or relocate, and drain 3s from anywhere. With Henderson, the Hornets would have a more traditional point guard setting the table for Ball, since Henderson’s 6-foot-2 and operates regularly out of the pick-and-roll. But if I’m Charlotte I’m taking Miller, since he’s a 6-foot-9 shot creator with a much better jumper and far more defensive versatility. Ball is a limited defender, and Henderson has an iffy jumper and is small—I worry that version of the Hornets backcourt would have a limited upside.
Or maybe the Hornets need this second round of interviews to realize they don’t want either Henderson or Miller. Teams around the NBA are calling, making offers for their pick. Maybe someone will make a strong enough offer on draft night.
The Pelicans are reportedly one of the teams targeting Scoot Henderson. The G League Ignite point guard grew up idolizing Russell Westbrook and plays a lot like him as a powerhouse driver, fearless scorer, and skilled playmaker. But to trade into the top three of Thursday’s draft, New Orleans will have to part with a star. Are the Pelicans really willing to part with Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram?
Reports say the Pelicans are more willing to offload Williamson, who has been a dominant force when he’s on the court, averaging 26.7 points, on elite efficiency, plus 7.1 rebounds and four assists a game in his two All-Star seasons. But he’s also played only 114 games in four years—just 37 percent of his possible games—and will make a whopping $194 million over the next five seasons.
Zion plummeted from the top 10 to no. 28 in Bill Simmons’s latest Trade Value rankings. And that’s fair. As great as Williamson has been when healthy, he’s had knee injuries going back to high school and college. Throw in his questionable off-court decision-making, a subpar work ethic, and a lack of comradery with his teammates, and you’ve checked a lot of the boxes for a player who historically doesn’t live up to their potential. If Zion miraculously stays healthy, he’s going to put up a ton of points and generate baskets for his teammates, but he can’t space the floor on offense and he’s proved to be a liability on defense. Are we totally sure Williamson is even a “16-game player” if he can ever make it to the playoffs?
There’s still a crowd that believes Zion is a lottery ticket, praying for a jackpot of generational talent to finally pay off. But cashing that in for Scoot might make sense at this juncture, and still give the Pelicans a chance at an All-NBA talent.
Henderson is no surefire bet to be a star, which is why the Hornets or Blazers would even consider trading their picks. He’s small, which negatively affects his ability to score around the basket and get stops on defense. He’s also never proved he can shoot with efficiency, a critical skill for a guard. With that said, he definitely has it vibes. He’s a selfless playmaker, and his scoring flashes resemble those of star guards. In New Orleans, Henderson would get to work with arguably the best shooting instructor in the world, assistant coach Fred Vinson, giving him a better chance of reaching his upside.
FanDuel TV’s Shams Charania reported last week that the Hornets prefer Ingram, who has had some health issues of his own. But he’s played in 72.5 percent of total possible games with the Pelicans, and he averaged 27-6-6 in a playoff series. Most reports have said the Hornets favor the forward Miller over Henderson, so if that’s true it would make sense they’d want a more advanced version of Miller in Ingram, who will still be only 25 years old next season. As for Portland, my sense from league sources is that Portland’s preference is Williamson, who’d be a weapon in the pick-and-roll and in handoffs alongside Damian Lillard (should he stick around) and Shaedon Sharpe.
If the Pelicans are looking to move up, they also have the 14th pick in this draft, and a treasure chest of future firsts that includes all of their own picks, a Lakers first in 2024 or 2025, and a bevy of Bucks picks. New Orleans could also dangle young talent like Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels, or Herb Jones. Regardless, New Orleans should be focused on getting a haul for Zion this summer. Look at how Washington fumbled its superstar trade. This could be the Pelicans’ last chance.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone said something pretty telling after the Nuggets won their first NBA title last week. “Pat Riley said something many years ago,” he said. “[He] talked about the evolution in this game. How you go from a nobody to an upstart, and an upstart to a winner, and a winner to a contender, and a contender to a champion. And the last step after a champion is to be a dynasty. So, we’re not satisfied.”
Winning consecutive championships is no easy task. Sports are inherently unpredictable. But the Nuggets certainly have the ingredients to defeat these newly formed “superteams” with their harmonious roster.
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world. His offensive prowess is unmatched, and his defense has now proved to be effective on the biggest stage against the best players. And with his durable track record, he is a safer bet than most stars to be healthy in the games that matter most. Jokic is also only 28, and the team’s age profile is promising around him.
Jamal Murray is just 26 and the perfect costar next to Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. turns only 25 this summer. Christian Braun is just 22 and should only improve from here. Aaron Gordon has two years remaining on his contract. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has one. Even if the Nuggets lose Jeff Green and Bruce Brown to free agency, their bench bristles with talented players like Peyton Watson and Zeke Nnaji waiting in the wings.
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During the Finals, Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth made an important move, sending a protected 2029 first-round pick to the Thunder for the 37th pick in this draft, plus a first and second in 2024. It’s an all-in move for Denver to send a potentially valuable future pick for three lesser picks over the next year. But now the Nuggets have the 37th and 40th picks in this draft.
This class is rich in role-player talent that would fit well alongside Jokic and Murray, much like Braun did all year long. Just to highlight a handful of names and player types potentially in that range: There are wings that specialize at moving without the ball, like Andre Jackson Jr. and Colby Jones. Players that provide shooting, such as Julian Strawther and Ben Sheppard. Versatile forwards, such as Sidy Cissoko and Trayce Jackson-Davis. If Dariq Whitehead were to fall following his second foot surgery, he’d present the type of upside that Denver found appealing in MPJ. And there’s many more where that came from, which you can check out in The Ringer’s 2023 NBA Draft Guide.
Challenges in Denver are expected, especially with the upcoming CBA and the Nuggets flirting with the second apron. This is precisely why the draft will be such a critical avenue for teams to sustain contention. The Nuggets appear to already know that. And if they continue their successful streak of draft decisions, they will be well positioned to offset any losses and adapt swiftly.
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