Jeff Goodman's Stock Watch: Risers and Fallers in Men's College Basketball – The Messenger

College hoops can be a lot like the stock market, volatile and unpredictable. One week, a team or a player can see their stock soar through the roof. Then it can plummet the next. Here’s The Messenger’s first Stock Watch of the 2023-24 men’s college basketball season, with spotlights on those who have boosted their stock and those who have seen it drop.
He was fairly anonymous to people outside of the Big Sky last season when he averaged 20.2 points, 7.2 boards and shot 38% from 3. The Colorado native started his career with two seasons at Northeastern Junior College, then played a pair at Northern Colorado for Steve Smiley before transferring to Tennessee last offseason. Coach Rick Barnes needed scoring, and Knecht is filling that major void in Knoxville. The 6-foot-6, 215-pound wing has quickly shown that his game translates to the SEC. Knecht has the size, athleticism and skill. He went for 17 in the opener, had 24 in the win over Wisconsin, and 18 against Wofford.
Hold: Knecht has the experience and athleticism — and he hasn’t even made shots from deep yet.
The young Wildcats didn’t stand a chance against Hunter Dickinson and a Kansas team that returned starters Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar and K.J. Adams. Then throw in that two of your top freshmen — DJ Wagner (1-12) and Justin Edwards (0-6) — made just one field goal in the game. Veteran Antonio Reeves was 3-for-17 from beyond the arc, yet Kentucky still had a chance to beat the No. 1 team in the country on a neutral court in the third game of the season. Rob Dillingham has always been electric, and he showed out on a huge stage. Fellow frosh Reed Sheppard was terrific until a couple plays down the stretch. This team is fast, athletic and fun to watch — and they are missing arguably their most talented player in 6-foot-9 freshman Aaron Bradshaw.
Hold: This team still has a ton of room to grow with all this youth. 
The Wolverines couldn’t get to the NCAA tourney with Dickinson and a couple of first-round picks last season. They couldn’t get Caleb Love into school during the offseason, and the roster appeared overwhelming. Then coach Juwan Howard had a heart procedure and is still recovering while Phil Martelli takes over on an interim basis. Well, Martelli and this group went into Madison Square Garden and obliterated Hall of Famer Rick Pitino and his St. John’s Red Storm. Sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel has been sensational, two-time transfer Nimari Burnett helped the Wolverines get out to a quick start against St. John’s, and guys like Olivier Nkamhoua and Tarris Reed Jr., have formed a nice duo up front. This was a team many picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten, but now this Wolverines team looks like it can do what last year’s was unable to accomplish: Make the NCAA tourney.
Sell: I’m not sure they’ll go higher than where they are right now.
Arizona went into Cameron Indoor Stadium and returned to Tucson with a victory. That doesn’t happen often when teams play at Duke. The biggest reason for the win was Arizona’s sophomore point guard Kylan Boswell, who is playing like one of the best all-around point guards in the country. Boswell’s numbers (12 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists) don’t tell the full story. He was the toughest dude on the court and he controlled the tempo, only turning the ball over once. Boswell played behind Kerr Kriisa last season, but he’s upgraded the team this year.
Hold: Boswell is going to be steady all season. What you see is what you get.
We have to give some mid-major love, and this is completely warranted. Mark Byington’s Dukes are 3-0, and the wins were extremely impressive. It started with a season-opening, overtime victory at the Breslin Center over Michigan State, then continued with another hard-fought, crazy overtime road win at Kent State, and continued with a win over MEAC favorite Howard. Tom Izzo hadn’t lost a November home game since 1986, and Kent State had won 23 consecutive games at home. Terrence Edwards Jr., has been a star, averaging 21 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists thus far.
Hold: JMU can continue to win non-conference games and then roll through league play.
The Terps went down to Asheville with Clemson, Davidson and UAB — and came back as the lone team that didn’t win a game in North Carolina. This is a team that overachieved a year ago during Kevin Willard’s first season in College Park, but now this team has come out of the gates slow, which could wind up costing the Terps come Selection Sunday if they do get their act together. Willard loves freshman DeShawn Harris-Smith, who has been solid. It’s been the vets who have struggled: Donta Scott needs to step up his game, and the offense has been pitiful thus far in the losses to Davidson and UAB. Jahmir Young needs to find a way to be more efficient, and Willard is also going to need more from his bench than he got down in Asheville.
Buy: I have faith that Willard can figure this team out and still get them to the tourney, especially in the Big Ten.
Coach Kyle Neptune deserves a mulligan for last season. He didn’t have Justin Moore for the first half of the season, and the team was also playing without a point guard. Even frosh Cam Whitmore wasn’t healthy to start the season. This year there aren’t any excuses. Neptune and the Wildcats used NIL to build a big-time team, bringing back Moore and Eric Dixon, and adding three transfers in Tyler Burton (Richmond), TJ Bamba (Washington State) and Hakim Hart (Maryland). But the point guard issue remains, as Moore is much better off the ball, and sophomore Mark Armstrong doesn’t appear to be the solution. Villanova had just six assists in a loss to Penn, and Armstrong is averaging just one assist per game thus far in 20 minutes per contest.
Sell: It’s nearly impossible to win without a quality point guard situation.
So many of us (myself included) picked the 6-foot-5 Aussie guard as one of the breakout players this year. He struggled during the first half of last season, but came on the second half of the year and his insertion as the primary point guard was a catalyst for when the Blue Devils played well. This year Proctor has looked passive, rarely getting to the basket and has often been blending in instead of trying to make something happen. Proctor has been OK, but coach Jon Scheyer will need more than that if this Duke team is able to make a deep run come March. Proctor is averaging 9.7 points, 6.3 assists and just 3.0 rebounds as a big guard. He’s also shooting just 27% from 3. One NBA executive I spoke to after Duke’s win over Michigan State said Proctor’s stock has fallen significantly in his eyes during the first week of the season.
Buy: Proctor will get going soon. It’s just a matter of time.
It’s been an ugly first week for the league. Maryland lost a pair in Asheville, Rutgers lost to Princeton, Indiana barely beat Army, Michigan State went down at home to JMU and then came up short against Duke in Chicago, Ohio State dropped one at home to Texas A&M, Wisconsin got smacked at Providence and Illinois lost to Marquette in Champaign. But at least there’s Michigan, right? There just looked like a ton of mediocrity right now in the Little, I mean, Big Ten.
Hold: I need to see more from these teams before I completely write off everyone except Purdue.
No one was higher on the Gaels than I was, and after Randy Bennett’s team knocked off New Mexico in Moraga, I felt good about my preseason pick for this team to get to the Final Four. But the Lobos were without one of their best players in Jaelen House, and then Saint Mary’s went out and blew a huge lead at home and lost to Weber State. Aidan Mahaney was just 4-for-14 from the field, and this team’s supporting cast has to be less reliant on the sophomore star. Junior guard Augustas Marciulionis (5.7 ppg, 3.0 apg) has to step up, and veteran forward Alex Ducas needs to show he’s healthy and more consistent. Right now, he’s averaging 6.7 points and shooting just 31% from 3.
Buy: In Randy Bennett I trust.

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