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2023 NBA Free Agency: 6 Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Targets For The Sixers – Forbes
BOSTON, MA – JANUARY 25: Harrison Barnes #40 of the Sacramento Kings goes to the basket while … [+]
The Philadelphia 76ers enter the 2023 NBA offseason without knowing which—if any—mid-level exception they’ll have access to in free agency.
If the Sixers re-sign James Harden on a max or near-max contract this summer, they might not have a mid-level exception at all. The new collective bargaining agreement, which goes into effect on July 1, strips teams of the taxpayer mid-level exception if they’re more than $17.5 million above the luxury-tax line, which means they can only hand out veteran-minimum deals to external free agents.
Depending on how much Harden receives and what they do with their other free agents (Paul Reed, Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels and Shake Milton), the Sixers could stay under that line and maintain access to the taxpayer MLE. But there’s almost no scenario in which Harden returns and they get the $12.4 million non-taxpayer MLE.
Any team that uses more of its mid-level exception than the $5 million taxpayer MLE gets hard-capped at the first salary-cap apron for the remainder of that league year. If the Sixers used the full non-taxpayer MLE, they couldn’t have more than a projected $172 million on their books from July 1 through June 30, 2024. Even without Harden, the Sixers are already at $122.1 million in salary for next season.
If Harden walks, the Sixers likely will have access to the full non-taxpayer MLE unless they hand eight-figure deals to Reed, Niang and McDaniels. The first apron shouldn’t be a concern for them in that scenario, although they’d likely want to stay below the $165 million luxury-tax line to ensure they didn’t become subject to the more punitive repeater tax in 2024-25.
Regardless of what the Sixers do with their other free agents, these six players stand out as potential non-taxpayer MLE targets if Harden does leave this offseason.
Every offseason, fans across the league convince themselves that their favorite team is going to land a certain free agent with the non-taxpayer MLE. Every offseason, some of those players wind up going for far more than that.
This summer, Bruce Brown Jr. could fit that bill.
Brown signed a two-year, $13.3 million deal with the Denver Nuggets last offseason via the taxpayer MLE. He later told Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports that “nobody really wanted me” last offseason “because they didn’t know if I could be a guard or not” after he played more of a small-ball 5 role with the Brooklyn Nets.
Brown ended up being a perfect fit in Denver. He averaged a career-high 11.5 points on 48.3% shooting, 4.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 three-pointers, 1.1 steals and 0.6 minutes in 28.5 minutes per game during the regular season, and he put up similar averages throughout the playoffs en route to the Nuggets’ first-ever championship in franchise history.
The 26-year-old is a heady, two-way player who won’t command a huge share of the offense. He’s a gap-filler on both ends of the floor, which the Sixers could use more of alongside Embiid and Maxey. Still, he told Mike Singer of the Denver Post that he wanted to remain with the Nuggets, even though they can’t offer him a starting salary above $7.8 million in free agency.
De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis commanded most of the headlines about the Sacramento Kings’ drastic turnaround last season, but Harrison Barnes was a quietly key component as well. The 31-year-old averaged 15.0 points on 47.3% shooting while playing all 82 games during the regular season.
Barnes cratered in the playoffs, averaging only 10.7 points on 41.7% shooting (including 6-of-25 from deep) in the Kings’ first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors. Those struggles against his former team could have the Kings eyeing a potential upgrade at that spot.
If the Kings do decide to move on from Barnes, he’ll likely have a market higher than the non-taxpayer MLE. However, the only teams with more money than that are in some variation of a rebuild, which the 31-year-old might not be interested in at this stage of his career.
The Sixers might become more of an enticing landing spot if they trade Tobias Harris this offseason and need a replacement starting forward. Harris is more versatile than Barnes, but Barnes wouldn’t be that much of a downgrade at that spot, particularly given their respective price points.
Barnes is miscast in a primary scorer role, but he’s plenty qualified to be a three-and-D wing. Other contenders would similarly be interested in him if he leaves Sacramento and is willing to settle for far less than the $18.4 million he earned last year, but few may have the combination of opportunity and money that the Sixers could offer this offseason.
If Jordan Clarkson declines his $14.3 million player option to become a free agent this offseason, he likely isn’t doing so with an eye on settling for less than that.
After spending the past half-decade as a reserve, Clarkson started all 61 games for the rebuilding Utah Jazz last offseason and averaged a career-high 20.8 points on 44.4% shooting, 4.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 three-pointers in 32.6 minutes per game. He also won the 2020-21 Sixth Man of the Year award after averaging 18.4 points per game off the bench in his first full season with the Jazz.
According to longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein, the Jazz came into last season “hopeful of securing a new long-term deal with Clarkson” before he reached free agency, but he rebuffered their extension offers. Although he doesn’t make sense age-wise with their rebuilding timeline, one executive told Heavy Sports’ Sean Deveney that they would “rather get him to a new deal and if they are going to move him, do it later on when they have a little more leverage.”
If Clarkson decides to prioritize an immediate shot at title contention over money, the Sixers could be a logical fit. De’Anthony Melton would likely slide into the starting lineup following Harden’s departure, which would leave the Sixers in desperate need of a high-volume sparkplug scorer off the bench.
Clarkson seems far more likely to return to Utah this offseason, if only to become a trade chip down the line. But if the two do part ways, he and the Sixers could see one another as mutually beneficial.
Grant Williams played a career-high 25.9 minutes per game during this past regular season for the Boston Celtics, but his playoff role was far more inconsistent. He didn’t play in three of the Celtics’ first five postseason games against the Atlanta Hawks, and he played for less than a minute in Game 4 as well.
Williams had four 12 points on 4-of-8 shooting in 29 minutes during the Celtics’ blowout Game 2 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round, but he had only five points on 2-of-10 shooting across the rest of the series. He didn’t play at all during their season-saving Game 6 road victory, and he played only three minutes in Game 7.
After not playing in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat, Williams averaged 7.5 points on 48.4% shooting in 24.8 minutes per game across the rest of the series. Still, it’s clear that head coach Joe Mazzulla doesn’t trust him the same way that former head coach Ime Udoka did, as Udoka played him 27.3 minutes per game in the playoffs during the Celtics’ run to the 2022 NBA Finals.
Regardless of whether they trade Harris this offseason, the Sixers could use more toughness and depth at forward behind him and P.J. Tucker. Williams got himself into some trouble during the Eastern Conference Finals after he antagonized Heat forward Jimmy Butler, but he was one of the few Celtics players who matched Miami’s frenetic energy in the first few games of that series.
Williams is a low-volume three-point shooter, but he’s shot 40.3% from deep on 3.5 attempts per game over the past two seasons. Team president Daryl Morey expressed his desire for more two-way players heading into last offseason, and there’s little reason to suspect that changed over the past 12 months. Williams might be one of the most realistic non-taxpayer MLE options who fits that bill.
Gabe Vincent wouldn’t be a traditional point guard to replace Harden. He averaged only 9.4 points and 2.5 assists in 25.9 minutes per game with the Heat last season, which is a far cry from Harden’s 21.0 points and 10.7 assists in 36.8 minutes per game.
Vincent likely earned himself a hefty raise with his performance during the 2023 NBA playoffs, though.
The 27-year-old started all 22 of Miami’s games en route to the NBA Finals, averaging 12.7 points, 3.5 assists and 2.3 treys in 30.5 minutes per night. He was a huge factor in the Heat’s first-round upset of the Milwaukee Bucks and their Eastern Conference Finals victory over the Celtics.
Vincent’s impact dropped off in Games 3-5 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets, but he had 42 points on 15-of-26 shooting (including 9-of-16 from deep) in Games 1 and 2 of that series. His relentless motor and ability to drill motion treys should make him an easy fit in any offense.
With new Sixers head coach Nick Nurse seemingly ready to turn more of the playmaking responsibility over to Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers might not be looking for a full-time ball-handler. Pairing the 6’2″ Maxey with the 6’3″ Vincent could create defensive concerns, but there’s value in both weakening a conference rival while filling a roster hole.
Much like Vincent, Max Strus also earned himself a potential eight-figure annual salary with his play this past season and during the playoffs.
During the regular season, Strus averaged a career-high 11.5 points in 28.4 minutes per game across 80 games (33 starts). He cooled off a bit in the playoffs with only 9.3 points per game on 40.2% shooting, but he was a huge factor in Miami’s second-round victory over the New York Knicks.
Across the six games against New York, Strus averaged 14.7 points on 47.8% shooting, 3.5 rebounds and 2.8 three-pointers in only 29.2 minutes per game. He carried that over to the Eastern Conference Finals, where he averaged 12.0 points on 48.0% shooting, 2.3 rebounds and 2.3 triples in the first three games against the Celtics.
Strus cooled off against the Nuggets in the NBA Finals—he finished with zero points on 0-of-10 shooting in Game 1—but he was an integral part in Miami’s surprise run through the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. The Heat and Strus have “mutual interest” in bringing him back to South Beach, according to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald, but their ballooning luxury-tax bill could push at least one of Strus or Vincent out.
One NBA front-office executive told Darren Rovell of The Action Network that both Vincent and Strus could sign deals “in the $15 million a year range” this offseason. If Strus is willing to settle for the $12.4 million non-taxpayer MLE instead, he could move into a full-time starting role with the Sixers if they do trade Harris this offseason. Weakening a conference rival would be an added bonus, too.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
