Sports
Draymond's Future, Kyrie's Decision and Top 2023 NBA Free-Agency Storylines to Know – Bleacher Report
NBA free agency is always a thrill ride.
We shouldn’t expect the 2023 iteration to be any different.
Sure, the player pool isn’t overflowing with superstars, but there are All-Stars, former MVPs and household names in the mix, so it’s not completely dry. And while there aren’t many teams with both the motivation and cap space to spend a fortune, that’s part of the fun.
Someone will pay a premium for high-end talent; it’s just too early to tell who will blow their budget and for which player.
Before the free-agent frenzy gets underway in July, let’s break down the biggest plot lines to follow.
From the outside looking in, James Harden is seemingly enjoying quite the charmed existence with the Philadelphia 76ers. He is second-in-command behind only league MVP Joel Embiid on a club with legitimate championship aspirations. There are other scorers on the roster—Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris chief among them—but not such an overwhelming number that Harden is at risk of getting lost in the shuffle.
Presumably, this all sets up for the 33-year-old bearded baller to age as gracefully as possible. He can be selective with his offensive looks, but he also has the freedom to take over. Whenever his decline ramps up, he can simply slide a bit out of the spotlight and let someone such as Maxey handle more of its shine.
One might think, then, the only decision Harden needs to make this summer is about how to structure his pay rate in Philadelphia for next season: Does he pick up his $35.6 million player option or opt out of it for a longer deal that could cut into his annual salary?
Yet, he is reportedly mulling another option, and this Door No. 3 would take him—of all places—back to the Houston Rockets.
“The Houston Rockets loom as a real suitor in free agency this summer,” ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski relayed on NBA Countdown (h/t RocketsWire). “… There are a lot of things that are attractive to Houston for [Harden]. It is essentially home, family, there’s familiarity with that organization and that community.”
The idea of Harden abandoning the championship-chasing 76ers to rejoin the rebuilding Rockets seems baffling from a basketball standpoint, but free-agency decisions are often bigger than basketball. It’s a lifestyle choice as much as anything, and maybe Space City has some comforts he can’t find in Philly.
Maybe this is all a leverage play on Harden’s part—at his age, he’s hardly guaranteed to find max money—but there have been too many links between him and Houston to dismiss the possibility outright.
It is tricky to picture either the dynastic Golden State Warriors or Draymond Green without each other. It is also possible that image will be forced upon the hoops world this summer.
The eight-time All-Defensive team honoree has a $27.6 million player option for next season. Picking it up could launch the Warriors into a half-billion dollar payroll in salary and luxury tax (at least).
Golden State could have gotten out in front of this by extending Green’s deal before the season, but it didn’t. It did, however, reach extension agreements with both Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, which perhaps nudged Green toward telling B/R’s Taylor Rooks, “the writing is on the wall” regarding his future in Golden State.
Given Green’s age (33), the staggering amount of money involved and his tendency to sometimes let his fire burn too hot, there is absolutely a scenario in which Golden State lets him walk. It’s also possible he simply finds something he seeks elsewhere—more money, a new challenge, a different environment; who knows what he’ll be after.
Then again, both the Warriors and Green will have to ask themselves if they can be the same without the other. If Stephen Curry drives the Golden State bus, Green is like the mechanic who keeps it on the road. The switch-heavy defensive schemes draw directly from his versatility, and the motion-based offense thrives in large part due to his screen-setting, passing and selflessness.
Can the Warriors run this same system without him? Can Green play at this level outside it?
Every aspect of this discussion is fascinating—not the least of which is the possibility the Dubs’ dynasty days are over.
There is a school of thought that the Dallas Mavericks have no choice but to bring back Kyrie Irving. That stems both from the price paid to acquire him (Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie, a future first-round pick and two future seconds), and the fact that the deal was made, at least in part, to cover up the absence of Jalen Brunson, whom the Mavs lost for nothing in 2022 free agency.
Dallas doesn’t feel exactly the same—not publicly, at least—but it does have a keen interest in retaining the high-scoring guard.
“It’s not Kyrie or bust, but we want to keep him,” Mavericks governor Mark Cuban told reporters.
While Irving is an impending unrestricted free agent, Dallas does have some control since it can offer him a longer (five years instead of four) and richer ($272 million instead of about $202 million) contract than anyone else.
But making a top-dollar, five-year commitment to a 31-year-old who last cleared the 70-game mark in 2016-17 would be something between absurdly risky and outright reckless. And let’s not forget, the Mavs hardly set the world ablaze after landing Irving, going just 9-18 once he debuted in mid-February.
His market is all kinds of murky, though it’s important to note that’s not the same as saying it’s nonexistent. No one would classify this as his finest campaign, and he still finished it with per-game averages of 27.1 points (on 49.4/37.9/90.5 shooting) and 5.5 assists (against 2.1 turnovers). His talent level is tremendous.
Maybe the Los Angeles Lakers make another run at him. Maybe the success-starved Houston Rockets (more on them later) choose him to lead their turnaround. Maybe an unexpected suitor emerges and throws the bag his direction.
It’ll cost Dallas to keep him. Maybe not max dollars, maybe not a five-year contract, but something very significant. That’s not an easy commitment to make to a 31-year-old wild card.
And yet, the Mavs knew free agency awaited him and still acquired him, so they’re prepared to pay something. Plus, they still need to prove they can build a winner around Luka Dončić, who wants Irving back, and letting an elite offensive player walk for nothing doesn’t exactly send that message.
With 35-year-old Brook Lopez heading into unrestricted free agency and 31-year-old Khris Middleton holding a $40.4 million player option for next season, this was never going to be an easy summer for the Milwaukee Bucks to navigate.
But their first-round loss to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat (in just five games) exponentially raised its difficulty level. It already cost former coach Mike Budenholzer his job, and it threatens to make Milwaukee think twice about over-investing in a pair of 30-somethings around 28-year-old centerpiece Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks, who won an NBA-best 58 games this season, suddenly find themselves careening into a crossroads. They’ll have a chance to extend Antetokounmpo’s deal this offseason, but not until September—after free agency has already played out.
Even if he is unlikely to ink that extension now (he has two more seasons plus a player option left on his deal), his future is front and center of everything this franchise does.
If Milwaukee has any hesitations about getting a longer commitment from Antetokounmpo at some point, can it risk paying a premium to keep both Middleton and Lopez? On the flip side, knowing that Antetokounmpo’s long-term future is unsettled, can the Bucks do anything that risks him souring one bit on the Badger State?
Despite their ages, Middleton and Lopez will be sought after in free agency if the Bucks don’t move quickly to keep them. When Middleton is healthy—he certainly looked the part in the playoffs—he is a high-end shot-maker who can create for himself and teammates, and he offers some defensive versatility.
Lopez, an All-Defensive first-teamer, is a premier paint protector with a reliable outside shot (37.4 percent this season) and back-to-the-basket scoring ability.
These are good players, and if money weren’t an object, Milwaukee would welcome them back in a second. But money matters, particularly with the new collective bargaining agreement and its newly created second luxury-tax apron. Lock into this aging core, and it will be tricky to plug holes as they arise.
While many franchise identities don’t substantially change in a single offseason, a few teams always chase something dramatically different—whether it’s a rebuilder loading up for a playoff run or a postseason regular abandoning ship to collect future-focused assets and improve their draft lottery odds.
We already have a few candidates in both buckets.
After three consecutive campaigns with a sub-.300 winning percentage, the Houston Rockets are clearly interested in launching back up the league standings. While this core hardly seems ready to compete, the Rockets are reportedly examining ways to construct one on the fly that can.
Beyond Houston’s potential reunion with Harden, the Rockets are also weighing a run at Khris Middleton or even Jaylen Brown, per Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer. Houston has also “addressed the idea of including second-year guard Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NBA draft, as part of a package for acquiring established star talent,” Fischer reported.
It also wouldn’t be shocking for the Oklahoma City Thunder to hit the fast-forward button after the season they had (winning 40 games, making the play-in tournament). That’s only a speculative guess, but the Thunder have money to spend and an attractive core to build around, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and 7-foot wild card Chet Holmgren.
On the other side of the coin, both the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls loom as blow-it-up candidates.
Both struggled this season—in Toronto’s case, badly enough to dismiss coach Nick Nurse—and each has at least one prominent player heading into free agency. For the Raptors, both Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. have player options they can beat on the open market. For the Bulls, unrestricted free agency awaits former All-Star Nikola Vučević.
Neither team has openly expressed a desire to hit the self-destruct button, but spending prominently on their own free agents would tie them to cores that couldn’t make it out of the play-in tournament this season. Maybe they see paths to internal improvement that we don’t, but it would hardly be shocking for one or both teams to use this summer to reset.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com. Salary information via Spotrac.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
