Leroux: Which NBA free agent will sign for the most guaranteed money? – The Athletic

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The Athletic has around-the-clock coverage of 2023 NBA Free Agency.
One of the most fascinating elements of the 2023 NBA offseason is that it does not have a single definitive headliner free agent such as Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard in 2019. Instead, there will be a group of talented players who can make a big difference on a championship contender, and beauty will truly be in the eye of the beholder.
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It is entirely possible no player gets the full 35 percent maximum contract for five or even four seasons, and a number of free agents have a credible case to get the most guaranteed money and/or the highest per-season salary. It’s worth going through that intriguing list and laying out the cases of why they may be the top target (and why they might not).
Green can decline his $27.6 million player option this summer, and the NBA’s most valuable postseason defender over the last decade definitely has a sales pitch since he can fortify and amplify any defensive scheme as both a floor- and ceiling-raiser. Teams looking for an identity on that end could not dream of doing better, and even though Green may not have the full burst of his 20s, his intelligence, mobility and length should age reasonably well. Think about how he would change the trajectory of a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets or even the San Antonio Spurs alongside Victor Wembanyama for a few seasons. It could be absolutely astonishing.
But we know there is far more to the game than just defense. Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors have done a phenomenal job utilizing Green’s offensive strengths as a passer and screener while largely minimizing the impact of his limited shooting. In his 11-season NBA career, Green has only made more than 34 percent of his 3s once (2015-16). Since then, he has made 29 percent from long range and taken just three per 36 minutes, not nearly enough to be guarded on the perimeter without the ball in his hands. That means when Green is not involved in the primary action as a ballhandler or screener, he is a massive offensive liability. On top of that, his fiery personality and history will turn off some otherwise logical suitors, but he is an essential part of the Warriors’ success and would be a difference-maker in more situations than some may think.
The 2017-18 NBA MVP has averaged at least 20 points per game in each of the past 11 seasons and double-digit assists in four of the last seven, including leading the league this season. On top of that, this year’s Philadelphia 76ers scored a robust 120.8 points per 100 possessions in Harden’s minutes, and that stayed surprisingly strong at 117.1 when Harden played without MVP Joel Embiid. It remains clear that Harden, who can decline his $35.6 million option for next season, can be the engine of a successful offense.
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While many focus on Harden’s shortcomings (which we’ll explore below), it is important to appreciate how few players can shoulder the burden Harden has over the years — my colleague Seth Partnow created total usage to measure the size of someone’s role, and Harden finished the regular season ninth in the entire NBA, one spot behind Nikola Jokić and well ahead of Embiid. Harden’s skill as a passer and scorer transform lesser teams by creating a more efficient foundation and also lightening the load for teammates. Incidentally, the Rockets could be an amazing illustration of just how much Harden can revamp an offense should he return this summer.
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Still, there are plenty of reasons to be reluctant to make Harden the marquee player in this free-agent class. He turns 34 this offseason and is already well below his admittedly high peak, so there are worries about how his game will age. Harden has also been a disappointing playoff performer at various points, and most teams cannot survive his highs and lows in a seven-game series against a talented opponent. He is also a poor defender who functions best in a switch-heavy system that asks a lot from his teammates and the front office alike, as so many players are exploitable in that scheme. Beyond that, Harden has a history of awkward exits from different teams, often preceded by a low-energy stretch where he makes his preferences very known both on and off the court.
It is important to note that each of the franchises that have traded him away received significant compensation for doing so, but that is a risk to be sure. For me, the lingering question is what Harden becomes in his mid-30s, because there are credible arguments either way. He has the size and skill to be able to run parts of his game seemingly forever but losing a step poses problems on both ends of the floor, especially for a team with lofty aspirations.
It would be both reductive and inaccurate to say Irving would be the clear headliner of this class were it not for his off-court issues. While Irving is unambiguously talented, the 2021-22 Nets’ offense was not that far above average when he worked as the sole creator without Durant and Harden. In addition, he has only played more than 60 games in a season once since leaving the Cavaliers in 2017 while also often battling injuries in the postseason when his teams make it. There is also a question of how Irving’s game ages now that he is in his 30s. While his handle presumably will stay electric, a slower first step and even worse defense could be more detrimental for him than for former teammate Harden due to their relative sizes and skill sets.
There are of course other considerations. Irving has now departed three different franchises (Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets) that at least had an argument as a championship contender at the time he left. I would not want to be in the Kyrie Irving business but completely understand why others can and will come to a very different conclusion. Another element for those estimating who actually walks away with the most money is that Irving likely has significant internal leverage because the Dallas Mavericks acquired him at the February trade deadline and could not adequately replace Irving outright but also do not have to deal with the same financial burden as some other potential teams due to their other salary obligations.
Middleton had an injury-plagued season but established a role as an efficient scorer and capable defender whose game fits in a wider variety of situations than most of his compatriots in this free-agent class. Middleton, who can opt out of his $40.4 million player option, is a 39 percent 3-point shooter who can both generate and convert tough shots. That’s a genuine rarity, and there is reason to believe he can continue that general niche into his 30s. He is also the only true wing on this list, and scarcity plays a huge role in the NBA, particularly when the player in question can fit alongside star players with almost any skill set.
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However, the last few years have clarified some concerns about where Middleton goes from here. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round series against the Miami Heat, Middleton could not hold his own guarding Jimmy Butler even as an infrequent matchup. Furthermore, his individual efficiency has typically been closer to league average than dominant other than an incredible 2019-20 season that seems like a long time ago now. Middleton can absolutely be a part of a successful offense, but is it as more of a play finisher than advantage creator? If so, his ability to be a key cog in a successful offense drops, and it is worth remembering that the Bucks’ title team earned the trophy with defense rather than dynamic scoring.
That overall picture could lead to a situation in which Middleton, who turns 32 in August, has a number of interested suitors, including the Bucks, but some may prioritize other targets and weaken his options. While he could help everyone, teams like the Rockets, Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz would need to have him at the top of their list to really start a bidding war.
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There was a time when I was convinced VanVleet would end up being the top earner in the 2023 class because he meshes beautifully with on-ball stars as a consistent shooter and tenacious defender who has been part of successful teams. That changed during the 2022-23 season because it became more apparent the 29-year-old cannot be the lead creator of a potent offense in a starting or closing five of a team with high expectations.
VanVleet can be a part of the equation, to be sure, but is not dynamic enough on the ball to run the show, making him a far less compelling fit for franchises still looking for an answer to that key question. Even if they agree with that evaluation, it would not stun me to see the Orlando Magic, Thunder or Rockets still feel that VanVleet is their best bet as a difference-maker because his worst-case scenario is still very, very good. But that comparative lack of major upside may prevent some from falling in love in free agency.
Even so, I expect VanVleet to be on the list for virtually every team with sufficient spending power, and his age is a big selling point too because this next contract will cover the remainder of VanVleet’s prime rather than his mid-30s like other options here. Can any of those teams put together a better offer and pitch than the Raptors? It’s hard to say, but they will definitely put pressure on Masai Ujiri.
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Porziņģis is the sleeper on this list in part because he just played the best season of his career (23 points and 8.4 rebounds with impressive efficiency) on a team that did not even make the Play-In Tournament.
The 7-foot-3 Latvian, who can opt out of his $36 million player option, turns 28 this offseason, so his next contract should cover his remaining prime while not saddling a team with too many post-prime seasons, and that can be important from a value perspective. His ability to space the floor and defend in the paint is a genuinely unusual combination, and Porziņģis has been a consistently strong rim protector over the course of his career when playing either power forward or center.
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His challenge on the open market will be both big picture and small picture, as centers are oversupplied broadly in the league and specifically among the teams with cap space in 2023. Take the Pistons, for example: Porziņģis would be a massive, fascinating upgrade for them, but Troy Weaver added Jalen Duren with a lottery pick last summer, Marvin Bagley III on a new contract and James Wiseman at the deadline when they already had young big man Isaiah Stewart. The Magic start Wendell Carter Jr., the Spurs won the draft lottery and the Jazz solidified their frontcourt of the present and future with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler. Could any of them take the plunge with Porziņģis? Absolutely, but it would be a surprising use of resources, even without considering Porziņģis’ injury history.
Instead, the biggest variable is his current team, as the Washington Wizards kept Porziņģis at the deadline and owner Ted Leonsis has signed off on some of the most lucrative contracts of this era for John Wall and Bradley Beal. Maybe that shifts with Michael Winger taking the helm. But my instinct is Porziņģis and VanVleet compete for the most guaranteed money due to their age while Harden and Irving have significant shots at it as well depending on how aggressive their Texas teams get with their offers.
While he will not be a free agent in 2023, my favorite to sign the richest contract this summer is Boston’s Jaylen Brown.
The 26-year-old’s selection to the All-NBA second team makes him eligible for a designated veteran extension that would add up to $295 million over five new seasons based on current projections. Considering his age and production, the Celtics would be wise to offer that extension, and Brown would be wise to accept it since the alternative is just too risky for both sides.
A disappointing Eastern Conference finals will absolutely give pause to some inside and outside the league (and inside and outside the Celtics too, I would guess), but talented wings are in short supply, and a rising salary cap makes an extension like his tradeable barring major injury. It makes sense from an asset perspective as well, even for those less optimistic about Brown being a foundational piece for Boston moving forward.
(Photo: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)

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Danny Leroux focuses on the NBA salary cap and CBA in addition to on-court analysis for The Athletic. He also co-hosts the Dunc’d On NBA Basketball podcast with Nate Duncan and hosts the weekly RealGM Radio podcast.

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