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Every NBA Fanbase's Worst Nightmare In 2023-24 – Bleacher Report
While the opening of an NBA season is loaded with feelings of optimism and excitement, it also happens to take place right in the heart of spooky season.
So, we’re going to throw on a pair of devil ears and dive into the nightmare realm.
While we hope everything that can go right for each team does, we also know that just never happens. So, without simply saying “Team’s best player gets injured,” we’re outlining the biggest nightmare in front of every franchise, while simultaneously knocking on as much wood as possible in hopes that these worst-case scenarios never materialize.
The Hawks still follow the lead of Trae Young, a 6’1″, 164-pounder who faces physical challenges in just about every defensive matchup he faces. The hope is Atlanta finds ways of limiting its liability, and it has certainly pumped a ton of assets into that attempt.
Between the previous draft-night additions of De’Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu, last summer’s trade for Dejounte Murray and the February hiring of Quin Snyder, the Hawks have made a slew of moves with the defensive end in mind.
But what if it isn’t enough? What if the Hawks simply can’t field a championship-caliber defense with Young on the floor? Since his arrival in 2018, Atlanta’s defensive efficiency ranks have been: 28th, 28th, 18th, 26th and 22nd. If a top-half—let alone top-10—finish isn’t possible with Young, then the franchise will have to seriously reconsider its future with the undersized floor general.
Boston had one of the NBA’s best three-big rotations last season with Al Horford, Robert Williams III and Grant Williams. Now, coach Joe Mazzulla maybe always didn’t see it that way—his handling of Grant Williams was head-scratching at times—but in terms of talent, the Celtics arguably had as much of it at the 4 and 5 spot as anyone.
Fast-forward to the present, though, and Boston is suddenly looking at a thinner, arguably less reliable group. The Williamses are gone, and in their place are Kristaps Porziņģis and Oshae Brissett.
Porziņģis is the most skilled big Boston has rostered in quite some time, but he’s a 7’3″, 240-pound walking injury risk. Last season was his first since 2016-17 in which he cleared the 60-game mark. Brissett is a hustle-first role player who’s only been a rotation regular the past two seasons and has never logged a playoff minute. Rounding out the trio is Al Horford, who turned 37 in June and just averaged the fewest points of his career (9.8).
The Nets seemingly have a two-way star in Mikal Bridges, who’d long been an elite defender and seemingly elevated to that level on the offensive end after his deadline deal to Brooklyn. While his surge only lasted 27 games, they were still about as impressive as a sample of that size can get, as he averaged 26.1 points on 47.5/37.6/89.4 shooting.
He looks like a special player, but as hoops historians know, it takes more than one special player to put together a special season. So, where is he going to find that support—not just now, but over the course of the 27-year-old’s prime?
The Nets have no obvious star candidates on the roster, unless you’re super-bullish about Cam Thomas or fully convinced Ben Simmons can find his way out of a two-year skid. Brooklyn has some attractive trade chips at least, but it didn’t use them in the Damian Lillard sweepstakes, and it’s unclear when (or if) the front office plans to pursue an impact trade.
The Hornets know they have a difference-maker in LaMelo Ball, but that’s about it as far as certainties go in Charlotte. Buzz City has been short on blue-chip talent for a while now, though the hope is it found exactly that with this year’s No. 2 pick, Brandon Miller.
“He has a combination of size, skill and IQ that’s hard to find even in our league,” Hornets coach Steve Clifford told NBA.com’s Steve Aschburner. “Almost 6’9″. Very good decision maker. Great skill package.”
Miller could be a good get, but he wasn’t exactly universally regarded as the second-best prospect in this draft. When B/R’s Andy Bailey ranked the highest ceilings of the 2023 class, Miller only landed in the No. 5 spot, trailing Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Ausar Thompson and Amen Thompson. Charlotte’s future gets a lot trickier to traverse if it failed to maximize the value of having the second overall pick.
Some might argue this is more of Chicago’s reality than its nightmare scenario, but we won’t completely rule out the possibility of this Bulls team finding its way. Jevon Carter was a really smart signing, and he just might be the two-way playmaker this club has obviously lacked ever since losing Lonzo Ball to a knee injury in January 2022.
Talent isn’t the issue, Chicago just hasn’t had someone who can bring it all together. But what if Carter connects the dots, and the final picture still isn’t more than a play-in participant?
Will this front office finally accept it’s time for a tear-down? Or will it continue investing resources into the Zach LaVine-DeMar DeRozan-Nikola Vučević trio and its supporting cast? With free agency awaiting DeRozan at season’s end, the Bulls have some massive decisions to make over the next nine months. If they botch this, they’ll keep languishing in the league’s middle class, being too good to bottom out but not nearly good enough to contend.
In 2022-23, the Cavaliers learned they can win big by playing big. With a pair of interior anchors in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Cleveland paced the entire Association in defensive efficiency and matched its highest win total (51) since its 2015-16 championship team.
Unfortunately, it all came crashing down in a five-game, first-round loss to the New York Knicks, a series that wrapped an uncomfortable spotlight around the bigs’ offensive limitations. Since neither is a shooter—they totaled 23 triples last season—Cleveland’s offense became starved for spacing in a way that effectively rendered it non-functional.
The Cavs added three-point bombers Max Strus and Georges Niang in free agency, but this club could still be cramped when Mobley and Allen share the floor. If Mobley can’t find an outside shot soon—Allen doesn’t even attempt them—then this frontcourt combo could be fatally flawed and headed for an inevitable divorce.
When Dallas made a desperate deadline deal for Kyrie Irving last season, it hoped there was enough talent between him and Luka Dončić to figure things out on the fly. That never came close to happening. The Mavs went a miserable 9-18 after Irving debuted, eventually tanking to keep a top-10 protected pick.
Dallas’ new hope is that an offseason spent together will allow its star guards to get on the same page.
“He came in the middle of the season last year, and we didn’t have much time,” Dončić told reporters. “We went straight to playing games. It takes time to do chemistry, especially on the court, so we didn’t have the whole training camp and then I mean the preseason too. So I think it’s going to be way better.”
These two seemingly have enough skills and hoops smarts to find the best fit, but as Dončić said, that can be a time-consuming process. And, based on Irving’s recent availability issues, the guards may not have as much shared floor time as they need. He hasn’t played more than 60 games since 2018-19 and last had fewer than double-digit absences back in 2014-15.
Once the champagne dried up from Denver’s championship celebration, this offseason became one of attrition. Free agency always loomed as a threat to strip away some key contributors and it did exactly that with the defection of Swiss Army knife swingman Bruce Brown, who landed a two-year, $45 million pact from the Indiana Pacers.
The Nuggets hope they have their Brown replacement—or, considering all the hats he donned in Denver, maybe replacements—already on the roster. Young wings Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are the most obvious candidates, but veterans Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday and rookies Julian Strawther and Jalen Pickett could all help cover the void, too.
Denver has quantity on its side, but the quality is uncertain. As awesome as the Nuggets looked last season, a missing puzzle piece can still torpedo the entire picture. If Brown’s absence is a storyline throughout this season, that almost assuredly means Denver isn’t defending its throne.
The Pistons picked up a few useful vets this offseason—Monté Morris and Joe Harris wave hello—but they smartly avoided chasing any quick-fix options to accelerate their rebuild. They seem to recognize their future trumps their present, even if the future is merely a mass of crossed fingers and wishful thoughts at this stage.
In order for Detroit to eventually take the next step, it needs Cade Cunningham to lay the groundwork by making a big leap toward stardom. He may not be the only young Pistons player with a lot of potential, but his ceiling stretches the highest.
His counting categories have impressed in ways that speak to his versatility (career 17.8 points, 5.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds), but his stat sheet comes up short in shooting efficiency (41.6/30.9/84.4 slash line). That’s fine for now, since he’s only played 76 games at this level—his sophomore season was almost entirely erased by a shin injury—but that free pass has an expiration date that could come up pretty quick
There were times last season—especially in the first round against the upstart Sacramento Kings—where the Warriors had trouble hiding their age. They often appeared a step (or several) behind on the defensive end, best captured by their fall from second to 14th in defensive efficiency.
What about this offseason suggests that’s about to change? Their most notable additions were 29-year-old Dario Šarić and 30-somethings Chris Paul and Cory Joseph. And while they managed to add a pair of prospects on draft night, their lone first-rounder (Brandin Podziemski, the No. 19 pick) lacks burst, quickness, strength and length.
Unless they suddenly take the kid gloves off of Jonathan Kuminga, who was benched for multiple playoff games, or make another major trade, they may not have the athleticism and top gear needed to race past their fellow championship-chasers.
Houston’s summer spending spree—a process that saw Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, Reggie Bullock and coach Ime Udoka to Space City—wasn’t about this season.
Sure, the Rockets would welcome more competitiveness in the 2023-24 campaign, but the real focus remains on the future. The hope is that all of these additions can help provide the structure Houston’s young players have perhaps been without.
What happens, then, if the franchise doesn’t detect any discernible growth from players like Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason? Those are the ones ultimately responsible for getting this organization where it wants to go, so if they can’t take a collective step forward, it might be back to the drawing board for this front office.
Indiana’s roster looks impressive from almost every angle. Tyrese Haliburton is already a star, Bennedict Mathurin could become one sooner than later, Myles Turner is a name worth watching in the Defensive Player of the Year race and a number of young guards and wings could emerge as helpful role players.
The one unanswered question—beyond the fate of Buddy Hield, that is—is whether the Pacers have properly filled their void at power forward. They’ve made multiple attempts to do that, including spending the No. 8 pick on Jarace Walker and trading for 2020’s No. 8 pick Obi Toppin, but there is no guarantee these investments pan out.
Walker is an iffy shooter with loose handles, and Toppin might be a better athlete than a hooper. Both have bottom-out potential in their worst-case scenarios, so it’s possible Indiana will have to pump more resources into this weak spot.
Look, injuries are a nightmare scenario for everyone, but they don’t look as threatening to some teams as they do to others. Given this franchise’s recent run of bad luck on the injury front, it would feel foolish to spotlight anything other than injuries sinking yet another season for the Clippers.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are reportedly healthy for now, but recent history suggests that may not be the case for long. Neither has reached the 60-game mark since joining forces ahead of the 2019-20 campaign, and there is little reason beyond blind optimism to think that will suddenly happen now.
L.A.’s injury issues have been particularly painful given the obvious upside of a healthy Leonard-George tandem. They didn’t spend a ton of time together last season (995 minutes), but when they did they bashed opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions. At full strength, the Clippers look like inner-circle contenders, but if the injury bug trips them up again, they may not get another crack at this, since both star wings can enter free agency next summer.
In his first two NBA seasons, Austin Reaves didn’t leap so much as he was launched into orbit. Between his fiery finish to last season (18 points on 56.8/44/85.6 shooting, 5.7 assists against 2.0 turnovers) and this offseason’s confidence-boosting tenure with Team USA, all arrows point to yet another breakout being in the works.
However, another jump from Reaves would no longer qualify as a pleasant surprise. Now, it seems more like a necessary part of L.A.’s championship plan.
The Lakers are more invested in him, unafraid of elevating expectations around him and increasing his shot-creation responsibilities. They need him to find another gear, and while he seems capable of doing that, things could get dicey if he doesn’t—and nightmarish if he happens to regress.
Last season, the Grizzlies built a winning formula around defensive dominance, rebounding and transition attacks. When they couldn’t get out in the open floor, though, Memphis lost its mojo. In half-court sets, the Grizzlies had the league’s ninth-worst scoring rate at just 96.9 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
Their main issue was a general lack of shooting. They had bottom-half conversion rates from every level, shooting just 47.5 percent from the field (16th), 35.1 percent from range (23rd) and 73.3 percent at the line (30th).
What’s the plan to turn these woeful rankings around? Newcomer Marcus Smart does a lot of things well (or better) on the hardwood, but shot-making isn’t one of them. Waiting out Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension isn’t a solution, either, since he’s been an erratic shooter away from the basket.
Before embarking on their improbable, historic Finals run, the Heat spent last season playing the least efficient offense of any postseason participant—play-in teams included. Their need for a perimeter shot-creator was glaring, which made it all the better that Damian Lillard, one of the best point-producers in the business, had handpicked them as his next team.
The problem, of course, is that Lillard wasn’t actually able to choose his team, since he still had four years left on his contract, and the Portland Trail Blazers wound up trading him to the Milwaukee Bucks instead. So, Miami’s source of half-court creation is once again a mystery.
Can the nearly-traded Tyler Herro solve that problem, or are the Heat simply waiting for the next star to hit the trade market? Do they even have enough trade chips to reel in a whale? With 34-year-old Jimmy Butler clinging to the remainder of his prime, the franchise is running out of time to get this figured out.
The Bucks accomplished a lot of goals in the Damian Lillard trade, proving their commitment to winning to Giannis Antetokounmpo and upping their championship chances. What they maybe didn’t do, though, was answer any long-term questions Antetokounmpo may have about this team.
“I want to be a Milwaukee Buck for the rest of my career, as long as we are winning,” he told reporters.
The first 13 words of that quote might have the fanbase overjoyed, but the final six could have the front office feeling a little uneasy. Milwaukee’s outlook appears great for now, but what happens in two years when he can enter free agency with the Bucks owing Lillard nearly $122 million for his ages-35 and -36 seasons?
The Bucks’ best bet is to keep Antetokounmpo soaked in celebratory champagne between now and then, but if this season falls way short of its championship-or-bust expectations, he could again have reasons to rethink his future with the franchise.
The Timberwolves have a ton of assets committed to the supersized frontcourt combo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. So, what happens if the pairing again struggles to produce?
They went a forgettable 14-13 in the 27 games they played last season and posted a mediocre plus-0.6 net rating across their shared 529 minutes. Their offensive output was particularly putrid (106.2 offensive rating, would have been the league’s worst by a wide margin), which matched the eye test of Gobert clogging the middle and forcing Towns either out to the perimeter or into overcrowded post-ups.
Minnesota surely wants to see if things can improve, with time to foster chemistry and build familiarity. If that doesn’t work, though, the Wolves might be forced to cut their losses and ship out one of these two, quite possibly at a discounted price.
New Orleans’ most obvious nightmare isn’t actually its worst-case scenario. Yes, it would be objectively bumming to see the injury bug once again prevent Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum from logging major minutes together, but you know what would be even worse? If this trio actually stayed healthy and proved it simply couldn’t defend at a high enough level to compete for anything of substance.
While all three are immensely talented on offense, that isn’t exactly the case on the game’s less glamorous end. Each ranks as somewhere between a subpar stopper and an outright sieve, and their shortcomings are severe enough to wonder whether they could doom this partnership.
“The Pels won’t be going anywhere if they can’t defend,” The Athletic’s William Guillory wrote. “If teams can attack Williamson and McCollum as quickly as they did at times last season, it’ll sink all the good this group can do on offense. Ingram’s hands aren’t clean in this matter, either. He has to be more attentive and make quicker decisions to ensure he’s in the right place at the right time positionally.”
New Orleans has smartly stacked its supporting cast with disruptive defenders, but it can’t hide three liabilities at once. It needs at least one of its offensive stars to level up on defense, though two leaps might be needed to get this club into the championship conversation.
A 47-win team and conference semifinalist just one season ago, the Knicks have almost everything they need to contend for the crown. Unfortunately, their one missing ingredient is the most critical part of any championship recipe: a full-fledged superstar.
They have stars in Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson and potential stars in RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. But unless you’re a glass-overflowing believer in the ‘Bockers or maybe an immediate family member of one of those players, it’s hard to imagine you see top-10 potential in any of them.
Since history holds that such a talent is required for any championship run, the Knicks can only hope the trade market offers up one of those elites. If it ever did, New York may have enough trade chips to land them, but until that happens, the Knicks are facing a reality in which they’re good enough to compete but not good enough to contend.
Because the Thunder have stuck to their slow-and-steady roster-building approach, they don’t face many possible pitfalls. Even if they wind up a pinch less competitive than last season, that’s still fine, since they aren’t under any real pressure to win right now.
What they do need to see, though, is a potential path to eventual greatness, and that almost certainly would involve a big rookie season from Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 pick of the 2022 draft. Fully recovered from the foot injury that cost him all of the 2022-23 campaign, he offers missing-piece potential to this young core.
Of course, that’s the extent of what he can contribute right now: potential. Until the season starts, Oklahoma City won’t know for sure whether his 208-pound frame can hold up on the interior or how much he can add to this offensive menu. If he pans out, the Thunder have a future as bright as any. If he doesn’t, they’ll have to plot a new path to a difference-making big.
There is plenty to like about this young Magic team, which rebounded from a brutal 5-20 start last season to play winning basketball the rest of the way (29-28).
There is also one giant reason to worry: This team may not be able to shoot. It was a bottom third three-point shooting team by volume (10.8 triples per game, 25th) and efficiency (34.6, 24th) last season.
Incoming rookie Jett Howard should help, but fellow lottery pick Anthony Black probably won’t. Internal development is the key, particularly with Paolo Banchero (29.8 percent), Jalen Suggs (32.7) and Markelle Fultz (31.0).
For the second time in two years, Joel Embiid has a co-star who’s apparently halfway out the door. Back then, it was Ben Simmons, who requested a trade shortly after the 2021 playoffs but wasn’t sent packing until the following February. Now, it’s James Harden (coincidentally, the primary piece of the Simmons trade) wanting out.
Harden missed media day but has since participated in training camp, though that hardly signals a change of heart with his trade request. While the uncertainty could create an welcome distraction, Embiid said that hasn’t been the case so far.
Still, this situation lacks a solution at the moment, and however it plays out could have a huge impact on Embiid’s longterm plans. The reigning MVP has already wondered aloud about winning a title “in Philly or anywhere else,” so the Sixers have to get this right. Waste this season, and the Sixers may not get another one out of their star center.
The Suns have assembled one of the best Big Threes in basketball, most recently acquiring Bradley Beal to team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. That’s a mountain of offensive ability, accolades and high-end talent.
It’s also a trio featuring a pair of 30-somethings, Durant and Beal, who don’t exactly have the cleanest injury histories. Durant has played just 137 games over the past three seasons, a stretch directly preceded by an Achilles tear that kept him out of the entire 2019-20 campaign. Beal, meanwile, has nearly as many games missed (72) as games played (90) over the past to seasons.
Given the significant injury risk at play, you might assume Phoenix has loaded up its supporting cast with reliable role players. However, since the Suns spent so much on their stars, they’ve really only managed to put discounted hoopers around them. If someone like Beal or Durant goes down at the wrong time, Phoenix will be in a really tough spot with its title hopes tied to players like Grayson Allen, Josh Okogie, Keita Bates-Diop or Yuta Watanabe.
The Blazers might be without Damian Lillard, but they hope they won’t be lacking a franchise face or long. In fact, that player is hopefully already on the roster, whether that’s this year’s No. 3 pick Scoot Henderson or last year’s No. 7 selection Shaedon Sharpe.
Each is a legitimate candidate to fill that void. Henderson is an elite competitor with explosive athleticism who conjures up images of Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose in their primes. Sharpe, who has as much bounce as anyone in the Association, looked like a rising star late last season when he averaged 23.7 points on 46/37.8/77.3 shooting, 6.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists over his final 10 outings.
Then again, Henderson’s next NBA minutes will be his first, so there’s no telling how he’ll handle the jump up to this level. And by the time Sharpe was stuffing stat sheets, the Blazers were playing stakes-free basketball while tanking to keep (and improve) the pick later spent on Henderson. So, while they might be capable of soaring to stardom, there’s no telling when or even if those flights will get off the ground.
Last season, the Kings unleashed the most efficient attack in NBA history. Beyond snapping their decade-plus playoff drought, though, they didn’t get a ton of mileage out of that offense. Their 48 wins were a good number but not a great one, and their plus-2.6 net rating was only the league’s eighth-best.
Their issue wasn’t tough to diagnose, as their 24th-ranked defense was too great of a liability to overcome. Finding a fix, unfortunately, is the hard part.
Sacramento made a few moves along the margins this offseason (drafting Colby Jones, acquiring Chris Duarte, convincing Sasha Vezenkov to cross the pond), but this offense-heavy core is still intact. If the Kings can’t field at least a mediocre defense, then their ceiling would be capped and serious questions would surface about the makeup of this roster.
As soon as the Spurs snagged the No. 1 pick and the opportunity to add super-prospect Victor Wembanyama, their future became all about his own. The possibilities for his career extend as long as one’s imagination will allow, but he has to stay on the court to make those dreams a reality.
“Only health can derail him from a Hall of Fame career,” The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor wrote of Wembanyama. “He’s already suffered a fibula stress fracture, a scapula contusion, and an issue affecting the psoas muscle in his back. There’s a long history of unusually tall humans like him having durability issues in the NBA. But Wembanyama will invest everything he can to maximize his odds of a long, fruitful career.”
Health will surely be at the forefront of San Antonio’s handling of Wembanyama, but outside of getting a suit of armor approved by league officials, there’s only so much the Spurs can do to protect his sinewy frame. They’ll be as smart as they can be about how and when they use him, but nothing would deflate this team faster than him suffering any kind of significant injury.
With Fred VanVleet gone from the guard group, and Darko Rajaković occupying Nick Nurse’s old coaching seat on the sidelines, this feels like the dawn of a new day in Toronto.
Except, Pascal Siakam is still around. OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are, too. Add Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Otto Porter Jr. to the list, and you have eight of the Raptors top nine players in minutes per game from last season—when Toronto had a .500 record and landed 12th in net rating.
It feels like major changes could happen with the Raptors at any time, but there haven’t been a lot of significant adjustments yet. So, what’s the long-term plan here? Does Toronto think this core is capable of much more than it showed last season, or has the right opportunity to switch things up simply not surfaced yet? The Raptors need to decide if they’re going all-in on maximizing competitiveness or are ready to reset. Failing to make a decision could leave them stuck in the middle.
While the Jazz exceeded expectations last season, that was really only true for the portion of the campaign they played with Mike Conley. They had a solid .482 winning percentage prior to dealing him away at the trade deadline and saw that number dip to .385 the rest of the way.
Point guard play remains wildly important even in this era of increasingly position-less basketball, and if things go awry in Salt Lake City this season, the lead guard spot could be the reason why.
They have a number of candidates for the position—Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Kris Dunn, Talen Horton-Tucker and rookie Keyonte George—but none offers a clear-cut solution. Clarkson and Sexton are better scorers than table-setters, Dunn has more defense than offense, Horton-Tucker is consistently inconsistent and George is entirely unproven.
It took the Wizards longer than necessary, but they have finely committed to an overdue youth movement. Because they waited so long to make this happen, though, they don’t have much in the way of blue-chip young talent yet.
Unless you count Jordan Poole—a 24-year-old who struggles with offensive efficiency and defensive everything—the only possible centerpieces are Bilal Coulibaly, Johnny Davis and Deni Avdija. That’s pretty bleak, especially since Coulibaly is by far the most intriguing of the bunch even while being a nearly blank slate on offense.
Davis had a dreadful rookie season, and Avdija has shown limited (if any) growth in his offensive game over his first three seasons. If Coulibaly doesn’t show at least a few high-end flashes as a freshman, Washington can only hope that future drafts help this team a lot more than the past few have.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
