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WNBA Finals: What gives the Aces an advantage? Where do the Liberty have the edge? – The Athletic
WNBA
Before the WNBA season started in May, much of the focus and preseason hype centered on New York and Las Vegas. The super-team narrative was formed even before the teams played a single quarter against each other. Still, as the season progressed, it seemed inevitable that the Aces and the Liberty would meet in the WNBA Finals. And here we are. How did we get here? Will the finals matchup live up to expectations?
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Let’s find out.
The semifinal matchup against the Connecticut Sun was challenging and physical. The Sun finished the season with the second-best defensive rating (96.8) in the league, and it showed in the first game of the series when they held New York to a season-low 63 points. But the Liberty rebounded quickly and found their groove. Betnijah Laney was a difference-maker. After scoring only three points in Game 1, she averaged 20.3 points for the rest of the series. Jonquel Jones also came up big, averaging a double-double throughout the semifinals and was the most consistent player on the floor. But Laney was the X-factor and has been all season. While Breanna Stewart was held in check for the most part — she still averaged 20.5 points in the series — it was Laney who came up with timely shots. And her individual defense and hustle were also key.
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We’ll never know for sure what would have happened, but not having Brionna Jones as an effective presence inside the paint and battling on the boards hurt the Sun in this series. That’s not to take anything away from DeWanna Bonner, who guarded Jones as effectively as she could. Connecticut’s bench play was exceptional. Ty Harris, DiJonai Carrington and Olivia Nelson-Ododa each had shining moments. Rebbeca Allen also stepped up, despite missing one game with illness. But even with everything Alyssa Thomas does on the court — scoring, passing, rebounding, running the offense, guarding every position, forcing turnovers — it wasn’t enough. New York made all the right adjustments after Game 1, playing zone defense in Game 2 and then a combination of defensivee schemes the rest of the series. It worked.
Two words: A’ja Wilson. Throughout the playoffs, Wilson is averaging 25.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and three blocks per game. She has dominated both ends of the floor. And with four out of five Aces starters averaging double-digits, the offense hasn’t slowed down. They lead the league in playoff points per game (71.4) and largest point margin (14.8). Las Vegas has also been just as effective on defense, leading in defensive rebounds per game (31.2) while averaging eight steals and five blocks. It’s the same script we’ve seen all season, with the Aces playing at a high level on both ends of the floor. And it’s why they were able to sweep the Chicago Sky and the Dallas Wings on their way back to the finals.
Best-of-five series between the Aces and Liberty for the title begins Sunday.
Who you got? pic.twitter.com/2FQjwIp9C3
— The Athletic WBB (@TheAthleticWBB) October 2, 2023
Experience. The Wings are still a young and growing team, and it showed in their last two playoff games. Both were single-digit losses, with the elimination game coming down to a last-second missed shot. Dallas held Las Vegas to just 64 points, but couldn’t muster enough consistency on offense. The Aces hit another gear and scored the final 11 points to seal the win. Making it to the semifinals was no small feat for Dallas. But lack of playoff experience to pull out close games was a factor, especially against an Aces team that is battle-tested and has championship pedigree.
Where do I start? Having last year’s MVP going up against this year’s MVP is a good place to begin. A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart are the best players in the league. Having them competing against each other in the finals is good for basketball, the WNBA and the fans. This matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams has been hyped all season. Both teams have talent. Both teams have proven head coaches. Both teams have multiple All-Stars and end-of-the-season award-winners. They went 2-2 (not counting the Commissioner’s Cup, which the Liberty won 82-63) against each other in the regular season. And while we haven’t yet seen a real competitive and close regular-season game, the finals will be a back-and-forth, physical contest that could go the distance to five games.
Wilson has scored 30 points or more in three playoff games so far. She has a 35.2 PER in the playoffs and is playing incredible basketball. The back-to-back DPOY is clearly on a mission to repeat. The Aces guards — Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young — are also scorers in their own right, especially on the perimeter, averaging a combined 51.6 points per game. They are physical and athletic, and play solid, scrappy defense. As mentioned, Las Vegas has been here before. This the Aces’ third finals appearance in four years. Experience is an asset.
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Becky Hammon has largely relied on a six-player rotation and hasn’t gone to the bench much in the playoffs. A short bench hasn’t hampered Las Vegas, but it could, especially if any starters get into foul trouble. Lack of frontcourt size and depth could pose a problem, and Jones could be a matchup conundrum.
Breanna Stewart hasn’t dominated the playoffs the way she did in the regular season, but the finals could be a different story, because stars tend to shine. This year’s MVP is due for a breakout game or multiple games, for that matter. Jones showed the difference she can make on the boards and scoreboard in the previous two playoffs series. And the Liberty excel when Laney locks down opponents with her one-on-one defense and hitting open looks on the other end. As for the backcourt duo of Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, what they give up in athleticism, they make up for in court awareness and the ability to sink 3s. New York also has the deeper bench and that will most likely come into play.
The Aces have multiple offensive weapons, and containing Wilson will be a challenge. Against physical defenses, New York can struggle getting into offensive rhythm. The Liberty are second-last in total turnovers in the playoffs, and they need to take better care of the ball against the Aces who can easily capitalize on points off turnovers.
There hasn’t been a back-to-back WNBA champion since the Los Angles Sparks did it in 2002. After 21 years, the Aces have the chance to get it done. But it won’t be easy. This series has five games written all over it. As much as it would be great for New York to get that first WNBA title, there will be a championship parade in Sin City for the second year in a row.
Reader questions
I’m not a seasoned WNBA coach like the Liberty’s coach, but I would. Marine Johannes is averaging only eight minutes per game for the Liberty in the playoffs, but she has had strong games against the Aces in the past, particularly the Commissioner’s Cup. Kayla Thornton has been solid off the bench for the Liberty the entire season, and Stephanie Dolson gives 100 percent whenever she steps on the floor. Utilizing the bench would give the Liberty an opportunity to rest their starters more, which could provide an advantage against the Aces’ short bench.
Diggins-Smith will have her fair share of team suitors, no doubt. She’s an All-Star guard who can put up MVP-caliber numbers. Phoenix ended up not being a great fit, but joining other top-tier players in super-team fashion is the fastest way for her to get a ring. The Aces are set at guard and so are the Liberty. If Diggins-Smith wants to be a part of a super-team, she’s going to have to help form one. Indiana is full of budding stars. Or joining Seattle alongside Jewell Loyd and a top WNBA Draft pick is another option. I don’t know if it could be done from a salary cap standpoint, but Diggins-Smith as the starting point in Connecticut would also make sense.
Connecticut has been so close to winning a championship. Since 2019, the Sun have either lost in the semifinals or finals. It’s hard to gauge how this season would have gone with Jones. Connecticut has some roster decisions to make. Bonner and Jones are free agents. It would make sense to try to keep them, then see what changes can be made at other positions. And as I mentioned, getting Diggins-Smith at point guard would be an upgrade.
A SUPER TEAM FINAL!!!!!!! #WNBA
— LaChina Robinson (@LaChinaRobinson) October 1, 2023
There’s been a lot of debate on social media about the super-team moniker lately. But does the narrative fit? Yes, it does. Candace Parker isn’t playing. But Alysha Clark is still on the floor. Add in Wilson, Gray, Plum and Young, and that’s enough star power for a super-team. Last season, the Aces weren’t regarded as a super-team, but they have a Big Three in Wilson, Gray and Plum. After Young’s breakout season, when she won Most Improved Player, she raised her game to an MVP level. As they stand, both rosters fit the definition of a super-team. Still, regardless of what it’s called or billed, this matchup is everything we could have asked for — the two best teams, with the two best players in the league, competing for the title. Let’s focus on that, and enjoy it for what it is.
(Photo of Kayla Thornton, left, and Jackie Young: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
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Lyndsey D’Arcangelo writes about women’s college basketball and the WNBA for The Athletic and Just Women’s Sports. Her first nonfiction book, “Hail Mary: The Rise and Fall of the National Women’s Football League” is available now. Follow Lyndsey on Twitter @darcangel21
