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Everything on the line entering last day of NBA's regular season – NBA.com
Breaking down playoff and Play-In scenarios as well as key storylines and stat milestones ahead of the NBA's grand finale.
Brian Martin, for NBA.com
LeBron James and the Lakers could face Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder in the upcoming Play-In Tournament.
A key goal of having the Play-In Tournament is adding drama to the final days and weeks of the regular season by keeping a pathway to the postseason alive for as many teams as possible for as long as possible.
Mission accomplished this season. Two guaranteed spots in the playoffs and three spots in the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference will be decided on the final day of the regular season, as all 30 teams play to send off the year in style.
While the East seeding is set heading into Sunday’s action, only half of the field is locked in for the Western Conference. Here is what we know:
That leaves the fifth through ninth spots in the West to be decided among five teams: LA Clippers (No. 5 entering Sunday at 43-38), Golden State (No. 6, 43-38), LA Lakers (No. 7, 42-39), New Orleans (No. 8, 42-39) and Minnesota (No. 10, 41-40).
Their playoff seeds will be determined by the following four games, all tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET:
There are 16 different scenarios that can play out based on the outcomes of these four games, as the chart below illustrates.
Updated Western Conference Playoff and Play-In scenarios through today's games.
Seeds 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/RBf48BWeHP
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 9, 2023
Four of the five teams involved have a chance at a top-six finish and a guaranteed playoff berth, while Minnesota is guaranteed to compete in the Play-In Tournament. New Orleans is the only team that can finish as high as fifth or as low as ninth by the end of Sunday.
Clippers and Warriors
For the Clippers and Warriors, the formula is fairly simple: win and guarantee themselves a top-six playoff berth and a first-round matchup with either the Kings, if they finish sixth, or the Suns, if they finish fifth while avoiding the Play-In Tournament and getting nearly a full week off before the Playoffs begin on April 15.
The Suns are a perfect 8-0 with Kevin Durant in the lineup since adding the former league MVP and two-time Finals MVP at the trade deadline. Could LA and Golden State prefer to avoid the No. 5 seed and fall to No. 6, then face a Sacramento team playing in the postseason for the first time since 2006?
Considering a loss could land the Warriors or Clippers in the Play-In, it may not be worth the risk to try to choose their playoff opponent.
Pelicans and Timberwolves
Things are fairly simple on the other end of the seedings as well. The loser of the Pelicans at Timberwolves game is guaranteed to finish ninth and host Oklahoma City in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 Play-In Tournament game on Wednesday.
A win by Minnesota locks them into the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In Tournament game, which gives them two chances to win one game to secure a playoff berth. A Minnesota win and a Lakers win would land the Wolves at No. 8. A Minnesota win and a Lakers loss would land the Wolves in No. 7.
A win by New Orleans means the worst they could do is the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In Tournament game, while still giving them five scenarios to earn a top-six playoff berth.
A win by the Pelicans, Phoenix and Portland would land New Orleans at No. 5, regardless of the Lakers vs. Jazz outcome.
Lakers
For the Lakers, a loss to Utah locks them into a No. 8 finish and a road game in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In Tournament game. They can also finish eighth with a win over Utah, with wins by New Orleans, Golden State and Phoenix.
The Lakers can bypass the Play-In and earn the No. 6 seed with:
Embiid to win 2nd consecutive scoring title
Joel Embiid is poised to become the 13th player in NBA history to win consecutive scoring titles.
While there is plenty of drama on the final day of the season, the race for the scoring title has pretty much been run. Sixers center Joel Embiid is poised to lead the league in scoring for the second straight season with a career-best average of 33.1 points per game.
With Philadelphia locked into the No. 3 seed in the East, the Sixers elected to rest Embiid on Friday, and will likely do so again on Sunday, in order to have the MVP frontrunner at full fitness entering the postseason.
Embiid’s closest competitor – Luka Doncic – was shut down for the season following a second-quarter exit in the Mavericks’ loss to Chicago on Friday, essentially locking up a runner-up finish for Doncic at 32.4 points per game.
With Doncic out on Sunday, even if Embiid played on Sunday and was held scoreless, Embiid would still finish the season at 32.6 points per game and win the scoring title.
Last season, Embiid became the first center since Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-00 to win the NBA scoring title.
Now, he’ll become the first center since Bob McAdoo in 1975-76 to win back-to-back scoring titles.
Embiid will be the 19th player in NBA history to win multiple scoring titles and just the 13th to win consecutive scoring titles, joining George Mikan, Neil Johnston, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bob McAdoo, George Gervin, Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and James Harden.
With Embiid winning the scoring title (33.1 ppg) and James Harden set to win the assist title (10.7 apg), the Sixers duo will be the first teammates to lead the NBA in scoring and assists since the 1981-82 season.
This season will also see the most players in NBA history average at least 30 points in the same season. Joining Embiid and Doncic are Damian Lillard (32.2 ppg), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.4 ppg), Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.1 ppg) and Jayson Tatum (30.1 ppg).
Jokic will fall short of averaging triple-double, set assist mark for centers
Nikola Jokic will finish the season with most assists per game by a center in NBA history.
For much of the season, reigning two-time Kia MVP Nikola Jokic was on pace to join Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook as just the third player in NBA history (and the first center) to average a triple-double over the course of a full season.
Jokic enters Sunday’s regular-season finale with averages of 24.5 points (18th in NBA), 11.8 rebounds (2nd in NBA) and 9.8 assists (3rd in NBA). Jokic dished out 10 assists on Denver’s loss to Utah on Saturday to give him 678 assists in 69 games played.
It is unlikely that Jokic will play on Sunday, given that it would be the second day of a back-to-back and the Nuggets are already locked in with the top seed in the Western Conference.
If Jokic were to play, he would need 22 assists to bring his season average to 10 per game; his career best is 18 assists from 2020 and his season best is 16, which he reached three times.
While he won’t join Robertson and Westbrook with a triple-double season, Jokic will make history with the highest assist average ever recorded by a center.
Jokic finished with a league-leading 29 triple-doubles on the season to bring his career total to 105. He trails only LeBron James and Jason Kidd (107 each), Magic Johnson (138), Robertson (181) and Westbrook (198) on the all-time triple-double leaderboard.
Thompson needs five 3-pointers to reach 300
Klay Thompson is a few threes away from exclusive company.
Only two players in NBA history have ever reached 300 3-pointers made in a single season: Stephen Curry has done it four times, and James Harden has done it once. Curry’s splash brother Klay Thompson enters the final game of the regular season needing five triples to join that exclusive club.
Most 3-pointers in a single season
Kings to set benchmark as most efficient offense on record
The Kings are headed to the playoffs, powered by the beam and a historic offense.
The Sacramento Kings snapped the longest playoff drought in NBA history (16 seasona) thanks in large part to their historically efficient offense.
The Kings enter the final day of the regular season with an offensive efficiency of 118.9 points scored per 100 possessions. That offensive rating not only leads the NBA this season – it’s the highest mark in league history.
It must be noted that most of the top marks in league history have come in the past five seasons due to the explosion in 3-point shooting across the league.
But it still means something to be the best of this era, which the Kings have been by a solid margin.
Most efficient offenses in league history
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