Ranking NBA Guards Under 25 with Highest Ceilings – Bleacher Report

The future of the NBA looks blindingly bright.

A batch of budding—and, in some cases, established—backcourt stars are a big reason why.

Several have already locked down All-Star selections, and others will soon challenge for those spots. These are, simply put, some of the best young players populating this league.

But how does one separate one up-and-comer from the next? That’s the task we’re tackling here.

To establish our playing field, we’ll limit the player pool to those who will be under the age of 25 by opening night. While we need to wade into subjective waters when projecting future growth, objectively weighing current production is a big part of the process, too.

So, which young guards have the chance to climb highest over the course of their careers? Let’s find out.

A 6’8″ floor general, Josh Giddey can see passing lanes smaller guards can’t access and has the arm talent to thread needles like a world-class tailor.
The 20-year-old’s offensive range is limited (and his 72.3 free-throw percentage hardly guarantees its expansion) as is his athleticism, so there are a few warts in his game. But you have to look past his growing pile of triple-doubles (eight through two seasons) to find them.
Honorable mentions: Jalen Green, Houston Rockets; Tyler Herro, Miami Heat; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets

One year removed from being the No. 12 pick and still only 22 years old, Jalen Williams already looks like the rare glue guy capable of making a leap to stardom.
His glue-guy game speaks to his two-way versatility, but his late-season eruption suggests his ascension is either possible or probable.
Over his final 19 outings, Williams averaged 19.2 points on 54.8/44.4/88.3 shooting with 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.7 steals in 33.6 minutes.

Cade Cunningham isn’t the easiest to evaluate, since one of his seasons was derailed by shin surgery and both have been spent with a rebuilding Pistons team that has no shot at winning.
Still, it’s hard not to let imaginations run wild with thoughts of what the 6’6″, 220-pound, 21-year-old could achieve.
If you buy his three-ball developing (his career 84.4 free-throw percentage likes its chances), then he has very few weaknesses and a wealth of strengths. At his peak, he could be a top-15 scorer and table-setter who plays effective, versatile defense.

No, Scoot Henderson hasn’t played an NBA game yet, but this is all about potential, and this summer’s No. 3 pick offers gobs of it.
His bounciness and burst bring to mind Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose in their prime, but the 19-year-old is so much more than an elite athlete. He is a ferocious competitor who can create for himself and his teammates, demoralize opponents at the rim and make plays on the defensive end.
If he polishes his perimeter shot, this ranking won’t be nearly high enough.

At 23 years old, Darius Garland has already established himself as one of the Association’s elite offensive initiators.
He is one of only five players to average 21 points, seven assists and two three-pointers in each of the past two seasons.
Garland is also in the process of upping his efficiency (career-high 58.7 true shooting percentage last season) and improving his decision-making (career-low 13.5 turnover percentage).

LaMelo Ball was a polarizing player before he even made it to the league, so this ranking may not be met with universal agreement. That’s fine.
The 22-year-old has encountered some turbulence through three NBA seasons, but he has also put up gaudy numbers and delectable highlights along the way, hinting loudly about his centerpiece potential.

In terms of dribbling, distributing and long-distance shooting, he blends those skills like few others can. His first three seasons, spent in the less-than-fertile developmental grounds of Charlotte, have yielded more than 3,000 points, 1,000 assists, 1,000 rebounds and 400 three-pointers. Luka Dončić is the only other player to hit those marks this early in his career.

Ball, who’s been an audacious shooter since his days as a prep phenom, has already exceeded expectations on the efficiency front, too. Sure, his 42.6 career field-goal percentage could use a lift, but he’s hit 37.7 percent of his threes and 82.8 percent of his foul shots. If he expands his inside-the-arc arsenal, he could have a 50/40/90 run down the line.

He has underwhelmed as a defender and not always been the soundest decision-maker, and those problem areas are too worrisome to slot him any higher. But surround him with reliable shooters and defenders, and that could mask his weaknesses, enhance his strengths and possibly put him on an All-NBA path.

Despite being a lottery pick (No. 12 in 2020), stardom was hardly guaranteed for Tyrese Haliburton. He has good size for the point guard position (6’5″), but that’s it for positive physical traits. He is neither blindingly quick nor particularly bouncy. His unorthodox shooting form has been a talking point since before he launched his first NBA three.

And yet, the 23-year-old is coming off the first All-Star season of his career and looking like he’ll book a boatload more trips to the world’s greatest pickup game.

Haliburton is almost a throwback floor general and a modern scoring point guard rolled into one. He is creative and calculated with his passing, and he already knows how to bend an NBA defense the way he wants. He has also used that funky form to become one of the best long-distance shooters around, splashing 40-plus percent of his triples and ranking among the league’s top pull-up perimeter shooters (2.2 makes per game at a 39.7 percent clip in 2022-23).

His potential could still be held back a pinch by his athletic limitations, but how much higher does he even need to climb to justify this ranking? He just bagged his first 20-point, 10-assist season-long stat line while flirting with a 50/40/90 connection rate.
If he isn’t already an elite, he’ll get there in short order and could maintain that lofty standing for the better part of a decade.

If you could guarantee zero availability issues in Ja Morant’s future, it’d be tough to keep him out of the top two. But who would take that bet?
The combination of his high-contact style and slight frame (6’3″, 174 lbs) has long been a threat to his longevity, and he’s now twice been suspended this calendar year for apparent gun-related incidents.

With a 25-game suspension facing him at the start of next season, this will be the third consecutive campaign in which he’ll miss 20-plus contests. That’s too many absences to just sweep under the rug.

Yet, the fact that the 24-year-old can have these availability concerns and still rank No. 3 here speaks to his towering talent level and potential to keep improving. His anti-gravity bounce might be the most captivating part of his game, but his ability to lead an offense is the most impactful. No matter if he’s calling his own number or setting up a teammate with an on-time, on-target delivery, he’s always making things happen.

In 2021-22, he was an All-NBA second-teamer. In 2022-23, he upped his assists (6.7 to 8.1) and rebounds (5.7 to 5.9) and nearly poured in as many points (26.2, 27.4) in fewer minutes (33.1, 31.9).
It’s staggering to think what Morant’s future could hold if he stays on the court.

It took Anthony Edwards just three seasons to secure his first All-Star selection. That’s an impressive ascension for the 2020 draft’s top pick, particularly when considering he could still add a coat of polish or two that would cement him as not only an annual All-Star but a perennial All-NBA honoree.

In his rookie year, it was fair to wonder whether the 22-year-old might be a more impressive athlete than basketball player, but he has settled that debate. He could still level up his shooting—especially off the dribble, as he only hit 35.1 percent of his pull-ups this past season—but he has perpetually pushed up his field-goal (45.9 percent in 2022-23) and three-point (36.9) connection rates.

He’s already a walking bucket on his way to the basket, as he bullied and bounced his way to this past season’s 14th-most points per game on drives (9.3). His downhill driving should lead to more whistles in his future (his 5.3 free-throw attempts were a career-high), but things could really get interesting if he finds a reliable pull-up and perks up his playmaking (career 3.7 assists against 2.7 turnovers).

If Edwards checks those boxes, though, and improves his defensive consistency, he has two-way superstar potential. Those are tricky leaps to make, but this ranking highlights a belief in his further evolution.

Luka Dončić has soared so high so quickly in his career that he could start bumping into his ceiling pretty soon. But this lack of growth potential isn’t as damaging as it sounds.

Even if he’s close to maxing out his potential—there are still ways for the 24-year-old to improve, which we’ll dissect in a minute—he has raised the bar higher than any other young guard can reasonably reach.
You can say he’s on course to reach all-time greatness and still wonder if you’re fully capturing the magnitude of his long-term outlook.

“He plays the game at his rhythm, he is very big, he can shoot, he can pass, he can rebound,” fellow Slovenian Goran Dragić said of Dončić last September, per BasketNews. “… I think he could be [the best player in history]. He is still very young, but if he stays healthy and plays a long more time I think that by the end of his career he could be the best ever.”

Praise—and potential—can’t get any higher than that, yet it may not be hyperbole. Dončić can be a bit loose with the ball (career 4.0 turnovers per game), isn’t wildly efficient from three (33.8) or at the line (73.9) and has more than a few defensive flaws. But highlighting them feels nitpicky when he’s so absurdly dominant even with those weaknesses.

He is a merciless attacker who consistently bends opposing defenses how he wants and carves them up with dribble drives, on-point dimes, step-back threes and two-steps-ahead processing skills. His last four seasons have yielded per-game contributions of 29.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists.

While every other player on this list is striving for greatness, Dončić has achieved it already. If this isn’t the best he’ll ever be, that’s a scary—yet wholly possible—thought.

Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.

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