Where Every NBA Team Will Be Worse In 2023-24 – Bleacher Report

It’s exceptionally rare for any NBA team to take nothing but steps forward in every aspect of the game from one season to the next.
Even if a roster stays almost entirely the same in terms of the names on it, someone (or a few someones) are bound to decline in some way or another.
More obvious examples include the teams that may be rebuilding or those that traded players who help in one area for those who help in another.
In today’s era of almost constant player movement, teams are almost constantly in flux.
So, for this exercise, we’re going to look at one area or aspect in which every team in the league might be worse in 2023-24.

Where they’ll be worse: Rim Pressure on Offense
John Collins was the most significant loss for the Atlanta Hawks this summer. And even though he had a down year (he posted his first below-average box plus/minus since his rookie campaign), losing him essentially for nothing is tough to spin positively (he was traded for a second-round pick and Rudy Gay, who was flipped to the Oklahoma City Thunder and eventually waived).
There are some intriguing options to fill those Collins minutes at the 4, including Jalen Johnson, De’Andre Hunter and maybe even Onyeka Okongwu (who’s more of a 5), but he’ll still be missed in some ways.
One in particular is the amount of pressure the team is able to put on the rim.
Now, this certainly has something to do with how often he’s shared the floor with Trae Young (one of the game’s best lob-passers), but Atlanta’s field-goal percentage at the basket has gone up when he’s on the floor in each season of his career.
Collins’ vertical athleticism and solid understanding of when to cut to the paint helped on that front.

Where they’ll be worse: Perimeter Defense
This is clearly one of those “traded players who help in one area for those who help in another” situations mentioned in the intro.
Kristaps Porziņģis undoubtedly raises the Boston Celtics’ offensive ceiling, but they probably don’t have the personnel to recreate the perimeter defense of Marcus Smart.
Yes, Derrick White will pick up some of that slack, but he and Smart played over 2,000 possessions together in 2022-23. And in those lineups, the Celtics had an 88th percentile defensive rating.
Not to mention the fact that Smart was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2021-22.
On balance, swapping Smart’s defense for Porziņģis’ offense could make Boston better overall, but there’s some possible downside here.

Where they’ll be worse: Shooting and scoring
The Brooklyn Nets got an interesting haul of talent and assets in their midseason Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades, but now we get to see the results over the course of an entire campaign.
And a couple numbers suggest the reshaped roster could struggle to produce at the same level on offense.
When Durant and Irving shared the floor in 2022-23, Brooklyn scored 117.8 points per 100 possessions. From the day KD was traded to the end of the season, it scored 113.8, a number that ranked 23rd in the NBA over that span.
And the Nets didn’t really add any offense to the mix during the summer. On the contrary, losing the outside shooting of Joe Harris, Seth Curry, Yuta Watanabe and Patty Mills could suppress the numbers on that end of the floor even more.

Where they’ll be worse: Perimeter Defense
Outside Michael Jordan selling his majority stake in the team, the Charlotte Hornets didn’t really make any dramatic moves this season. It appears they’re banking on the return of Miles Bridges and a hope for a healthier LaMelo Ball as their path to improvement.
They did suffer one loss that could be more meaningful than people realize, though, especially if that hope in Ball’s health goes unrewarded.
Last season, the Hornets’ net rating (net points per 100 possessions) was a stout 5.3 points better when Dennis Smith Jr. was on the floor, because the team gave up a whopping 10.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he played.
Smith, who ranked second in the league in defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics among NBA front offices), is a dynamic point-of-attack defender who can start in the absence of Ball.
Not having him could have a real impact on the team’s depth and defense.

Where they’ll be worse: Defense
The Chicago Bulls finished the 2022-23 season in fifth place on defense, and they didn’t really make any offseason moves that scream regression on that end.
In fact, the additions of Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig could actually help on that end.
But this prediction is based on the fact that DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević, two players in their mid-30s who already have less-than-stellar reputations on defense, could take steps back.
If either or both do, maintaining a top-five-level defense (already a tough task) isn’t in the cards.

Where they’ll be worse: Defense
The Cleveland Cavaliers had the best defense in the league last season. Repeating that is hard enough to do to base this prediction on that alone.
But incoming small forward Max Strus figures to be the team’s starting 3 in 2023-24. And while consistency at that spot should ultimately be a good thing overall, it probably won’t help on the defensive end.
Strus ranked in the sixth percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus last season, and he’s never ranked higher than the 25th percentile in his career.
His volume three-point shooting might be worth the tradeoff, but he’s likely to be targeted to no end on defense.

Where they’ll be worse: Defense
I promise “Defense” won’t be the answer for every team in the rest of the slideshow, but the Dallas Mavericks are another one where it’s obviously plausible.
Prior to the acquisition of Kyrie Irving, the Mavs gave up (a still not very good) 115.6 points per 100 possessions. That number rose to 117.1 when Irving shared the floor with Luka Dončić.
That’s not a huge change, and picking up Grant Williams and Dante Exum could offset it, but Dallas is about to play a lot more Kyrie-Luka lineups in 2023-24. And they still don’t have a high-level defensive anchor to back them up.

Where they’ll be worse: Roster Versatility
Jamal Murray is a 6’4″ point guard who missed 17 regular-season games. Michael Porter Jr. is a 6’10” forward who missed 20. Having a single player who could fill in for both was huge.
The Denver Nuggets were plus-16.4 points per 100 possessions when Bruce Brown occupied Murray’s spot in the lineup with the other four starters. They were plus-10.2 when he was in MPJ’s spot among the starters.
Now, of course, he’s an Indiana Pacer.
Denver must have some confidence in youngsters like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson to pick up the slack, but having a utility man like Brown makes so many rotation choices easier.

Where they’ll be worse: Free-Throw Rate
It’s tough to find areas where a team might be worse when that team just finished 28th in net rating.
There isn’t much further down for the Detroit Pistons to go, and I think they’re a pretty good candidate for general improvement in 2023-24.
But they were sixth in the league in free-throw-attempt rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) last season, and the reintegration of Cade Cunningham into the lineup could make that a tough spot to maintain.
Among the 116 players who took at least as many shots over the course of his career, Cunningham is 98th in free-throw-attempt rate, and he’s almost certain to play more than the 400 minutes he logged in 2022-23.

Where they’ll be worse: Rebounding
The Golden State Warriors were middle of the road in rebounding on both ends in 2022-23, and they had a couple offseason moves that suggest they could be headed south on that leaderboard.
First, and most obvious, is the addition of Chris Paul. Whether he starts or not, the 38-year-old does figure to play a decent amount of minutes with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. And that lineup is minuscule.
Unless teams try to match their small-ball unit, the size disadvantage is going to lead to a lot of rebounds for opponents.
The second and perhaps more subtle hit on Golden State’s rebounding is the loss of Donte DiVincenzo. Among players his height (6’4″) or shorter, he is sixth all-time in career rebounding percentage.

Where they’ll be worse: Offensive Rebounding
The preamble on the Pistons slide clearly applies to the Houston Rockets, too. They were tied with Detroit in net rating last season. And the offseason additions of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks almost guarantee general improvement for the team.
But staying in first place in offensive rebounding percentage could be tough, especially with VanVleet playing 30-plus minutes per game.
Last season, Kevin Porter Jr. averaged 1.4 offensive boards per 75 possessions (a decent mark for a point guard), while VanVleet was at 0.5.
Even among his 6’1″-and-under peers, VanVleet just isn’t great in that area. His career 0.5 offensive boards per 75 possessions is tied for 89th among the 116 high height or shorter with 5,000-plus minutes in the three-point era.

Where they’ll be worse: Three-Point Shooting
The Indiana Pacers are yet another team that looks like a good candidate for improvement in 2023-24.
Trying to find somewhere where these teams will be worse almost feels like nitpicking, especially for those who had solid offseasons.
If Tyrese Haliburton stays healthy, Brown plays like he did for Denver and Obi Toppin develops just a bit, the Pacers will almost certainly be better.
But repeating a top-six finish in threes per game could be a challenge, especially if Toppin is sort of stagnant as an outside shooter.
For his career, he’s a well-below-average 32.5 percent from deep.

Where they’ll be worse: Three-Point Shooting
There are a few factors leading to this prediction for the Los Angeles Clippers.
First of all, repeating the 38.1 three-point percentage that finished third last season would have been difficult even if they had brought back all of their shooters.
But they didn’t, and that leads to the second factor. Despite not playing the entire season with L.A., Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Eric Gordon were seventh, eighth and 10th on the team in threes made in 2022-23. The latter two shot 44.7 and 42.3 percent, respectively, from deep. And all three will be in different uniforms in 2023-24.
But the biggest reason the Clippers might take a step back from the outside is a full season from Russell Westbrook, who figures to start at point guard.
Among the 46 players with at least as many career three-point attempts, the 34-year-old is 46th in three-point percentage (and 505th among the 523 with 1,000-plus attempts).

Where they’ll be worse: Free-Throw-Attempt Differential
The Los Angeles Lakers shot a staggering 597 more free throws than their opponents in the 2022-23 regular and postseason.
That’s the 26th biggest spread on record and 394 more than their closest competition from 2022-23. The distance between the Lakers and second place was greater than the distance between second and 28th.
That’s an absurd differential and advantage that L.A. enjoyed throughout the season.
And while the continued presence of LeBron James and Austin Reaves on the roster means the Lakers will shoot plenty of free throws again, the introduction of the flopping technical foul could curtail their antics a bit.
Even if it doesn’t, though, repeating a differential that big seems borderline impossible.

Where they’ll be worse: Rim Pressure on Offense
In each of Ja Morant’s four NBA seasons, the Memphis Grizzlies have taken significantly more shots at the rim when he’s on the floor.
And it’s not hard to see why.
The 24-year-old is a relentless driver (he finished second in both drives per game and field-goal attempts out of drives per game in 2022-23), and the Grizzlies don’t really have anyone who can replace that during his season-opening 25-game suspension.
Given the fact that that’s almost a third of the campaign, it’s safe to assume the team’s overall rim pressure will take a hit.

Where they’ll be worse: Three-Point Volume (Assuming They Don’t Get Damian Lillard)
If the Miami Heat eventually pull off the heist they’ve presumably been chasing all summer and add Damian Lillard, the answer for this team would probably be defense.
But given the amount of time between Lillard’s trade request and now, and the fact that he’s still a Portland Trail Blazer, we have to analyze Miami as is.
This summer, it lost Strus, who’s third of all time in career three-point attempts per 75 possessions. And while the Heat still have Duncan Robinson (who’s first on that list), they don’t really have anyone incoming who’ll replace the lost volume.

Where they’ll be worse: Defense
The Milwaukee Bucks are bringing back Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday and most of a defense that finished fourth in the league in 2022-23.
Generally speaking, they should be fine on that end of the floor.
But a slight, age-related decline wouldn’t be shocking. Lopez, Holiday and Khris Middleton are 35, 33 and 32, respectively. Lopez had a back surgery in 2021, and Middleton has struggled with injuries for much of the last few years.
But the under-the-radar factor behind a potential step back could be Giannis. Like Middleton, injuries have cost the 28-year-old a lot of games over the last two seasons.
And in 2022-23, his block and steal rates plummeted from the levels they occupied over the course of the six previous years.

Where they’ll be worse: Defense
Karl-Anthony Towns only appeared in 29 regular-season games in 2022-23. And while the Minnesota Timberwolves allowed fewer points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor during that campaign, the opposite was true in each of the three before that. And he hasn’t had an above-average defensive estimated plus-minus since 2019-20.
Having him back in the lineup and likely defending 4s on the perimeter could lead to a slight decline in team defense.
His presence also probably means fewer minutes for Kyle Anderson, one of the game’s more versatile and underrated defenders.
And though he’d certainly get higher marks than the point guard he replaced (D’Angelo Russell) for defensive awareness, Mike Conley is 6’1″ and turns 36 in October. The chances of him struggling to keep up with younger 1s are high.

Where they’ll be worse: Defense
This is one of the trickiest teams of the exercise.
The New Orleans Pelicans were around middle of the pack in several areas last season, a phenomenon that led to the league’s 10th best net rating.
And if Zion Williamson is able to play a decent number of games (say, 60-plus), it’s hard to imagine many team-level declines.
So, we’ll just kind of default to defense, where New Orleans was sixth in the league last season.
That’s a tough level to maintain year to year. And though Williamson has generally gotten good marks from defensive estimated plus-minus, he has a reputation for occasionally checking out on that end. And it’s always felt like he could do more as a defensive rebounder.

Where they’ll be worse: Offense
The New York Knicks’ second-place offense is about as difficult to explain as anything from 2022-23.
They were 19th in three-point percentage and tied for 11th in threes per game. They started two of the least efficient shooters in basketball in Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. And while they had solid marks in offensive rebounding and free-throw-attempt rate, they didn’t lead the league in either.
Whatever alchemy they used to ride all of that to a top-two offense will wear off to some degree in 2023-24.

Where they’ll be worse: Forced Turnovers
The Oklahoma City Thunder are loaded with developing talent and were sort of middle of the pack in most indicators, so that makes it tricky to forecast a decline.
Even their biggest team strength, forcing turnovers, is an area where they could reasonably be expected to improve. With Chet Holmgren incoming, the perimeter defenders could be even more aggressive, knowing there’s a rim protector behind them now.
But we’ll peg that as the possible area of regression anyway, mostly by process of elimination.
OKC was second in the league in forcing turnovers last season, and finishing that high in any category in back-to-back seasons is tough.

Where they’ll be worse: Nowhere
I said at the outset that you’d read about one area where every team will get worse, but I reserved this cop-out for just one squad.
The Orlando Magic finished 2022-23 in 24th place in net rating, 26th on offense and 11th on defense. And it’s fair to expect them to get better everywhere.
Paolo Banchero’s performance at the FIBA World Cup suggests the 2023 Rookie of the Year could be in for a star leap. Franz Wagner is still trending toward All-Star level. And most of the rest of the rotation are still in their developmental years too.
After a 5-20 start last season, the Magic were above .500 over their last 57 games. It feels like multiple things would have to go unexpectedly wrong for that trend not to continue.

Where they’ll be worse: Cohesion (Assuming James Harden Is Still There)
Even with James Harden publicly calling Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey a liar, the longer we go without a trade, the more it feels like the 34-year-old will start the season in Philly.
And given the displays we saw from him on his way out of both Houston and Brooklyn, it’s not hard to imagine something similar for the 76ers.
Of course, the wiser path is playing well, rehabbing his value and getting the trade he wants midseason, but recent history suggests that may not be the one Harden takes.

Where they’ll be worse: Depth
The Phoenix Suns were already struggling in the depth department after the KD trade. And they did about as well as could be expected in free agency, given the fact that they only had minimum contracts to hand out.
But carrying Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Deandre Ayton and their four max contracts means Phoenix could be in the running for the most volatile bench in the league.
Eric Gordon should be helpful. And if two or three of Yuta Watanabe, Keita Bates-Diop, Bol Bol and Drew Eubanks play better than expected, this might not be a huge issue.
But there’s a reason they were all available for minimums, and Durant and Beal haven’t had the most reassuring injury histories in recent years.

Where they’ll be worse: Offense
Damian Lillard is still a member of the Portland Trail Blazers, but it feels like that partnership could end at any minute.
Whether the trade happens before the season or during it, whenever Lillard leaves, the offense is going to fall off a cliff.
Last season, he averaged a career-high 32.2 points and led the league in offensive estimated plus-minus.
And those numbers had a clear effect on Portland’s bottom line. The Blazers scored 120.3 points per 100 possessions when Lillard was on the floor and 109.0 when he was off in 2022-23.
For context, the Hornets had the 30th-ranked offense in the league and put up 109.4 points per 100 possessions.

Where they’ll be worse: Offense
The Sacramento Kings posted the best offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) on record in 2022-23, and all of their most important players on that end are back.
At least three of them—Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter and De’Aaron Fox—can still reasonably be expected to be on the upward side of their developmental trajectories, too.
But recreating a 119.4 offensive rating feels borderline impossible, even as teams seemingly figure out how to score more efficiently every season.
Opposing defenses should be better prepared to face this attack in 2023-24, and that could mean a slight step back there.

Where they’ll be worse: Offensive Rebounding
The San Antonio Spurs are another team that doesn’t really have a ton of room for decline.
They were last in the league in net rating and in the bottom third of just about every traditional indicator, but that’s not true of offensive rebounding.
In fact, last season, they were somehow in the top 10 there.
So, that’s probably the safe bet for an area of natural regression, but the arrival of Victor Wembanyama could contribute to that too.
There isn’t much left to be said about his upside, but it’s going to take some time for him to adjust to the physicality of the NBA, and that’s especially true when it comes to rebounding.
Wembanyama’s going to take a lot of hits in the paint, and his high center of gravity is going to get knocked off balance. Opponents should be able to collect a few more defensive boards on the Spurs in 2023-24.

Where they’ll be worse: Taking Care of the Ball
Even if giving Scottie Barnes more minutes as the point forward is the key to a higher long-term ceiling for the Toronto Raptors, losing Fred VanVleet for nothing was far from ideal.
In 2022-23, Toronto had the lowest turnover percentage in the league, and VanVleet’s floor generalship had a lot to do with that.
Over the course of his career, he’s averaged 2.0 turnovers per 75 possessions. His replacement, Dennis Schröder, is at 3.2.
And while Barnes hasn’t had a huge turnover rate to this point in his young career, the additional pressure that could come with him running the offense more often could drive it up.

Where they’ll be worse: Leadership on Offense
The Utah Jazz have a few things working against a repeat performance in 2023-24.
For one thing, they won’t take as many teams and defenders by surprise. Everyone knows Lauri Markkanen is an All-Star talent now.
And Jordan Clarkson and Kelly Olynyk, who are both in their 30s, could be in for decline seasons.
The bigger issue for Utah’s offense, though, will be the season-long absence of Mike Conley. His steady-handed leadership at the 1 was big for last year’s team. And his departure prior to the trade deadline helped push the team outside play-in contention.
Last season, the Jazz scored 120.0 points per 100 possessions with Conley on the floor and 115.8 without him.

Where they’ll be worse: Offense
I’m going to stake out some uncrowded ground when it comes to the Washington Wizards and say they’ll be better than most expect.
No, they probably won’t make the play-in tournament or anything, and there will be some very conservative injury management down the stretch, but when all their guys are available, they’ll at least be competitive.
The lineup of Tyus Jones (or Delon Wright), Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert (or Deni Avdija), Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford is, at the very least, interesting.
But losing both Beal and Porziņģis in one summer means Washington will almost certainly be worse on the offensive end.
Beal and Porziņģis ranked in the 93rd and 96th percentile, respectively, in offensive estimated plus-minus in 2022-23, while Poole was in the 70th.

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