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Ranking NBA Bigs Under 25 with Highest Ceilings – Bleacher Report
NBA bigs never lost their importance.
They were just forced to evolve as much as anyone to meet the demands of the modern game.
You can still find interior anchors, but today’s best bigs play similar do-it-all games as their perimeter counterparts. They’re forcing us to ditch the “unicorn” label for the shot-blocking and three-point shooting combination, because it’s no longer the rarity that moniker implies.
Size alone may be losing its appeal, but size-plus-skill remains an unbeatable equation. Just ask reigning MVP Joel Embiid or reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokić, who collected the two MVP trophies before Embiid’s.
It’s possible this league could continue running through the frontcourt, since that’s where some of the best young hoopers reside. We’ve compiled the top 10 bigs who will be under 25 by opening date and ranked them on their potential and likelihood of realizing it.
As a 24-year-old with four NBA seasons under his belt, Nic Claxton seems closer to his long-term identity than most players on this list. That’s largely a good thing, though it is fair to wonder just how much he’ll be able to add to his offensive arsenal moving forward.
Defensively, he’s already elite. He doubles as both a paint protector and a switchable stopper on the perimeter. He hasn’t made an All-Defensive team yet, but that feels like a matter of time. This past season, he landed in the 97th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus, per Dunks & Threes.
Offensively, he shines as a play finisher—he shot a league-leading 70.5 percent this past season—and keeps active on the glass. He also offers a pinch of playmaking on dribble hand-offs and short rolls, but the ball skills he flashed at Georgia may never fully materialize in this league.
Honorable mention: Bol Bol, Phoenix Suns; Wendell Carter Jr., Orlando Magic; ; Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons; Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets; James Wiseman, Detroit Pistons
Unable to get around the Clint Capela-sized barricade in front of him, Onyeka Okongwu has made just 28 starts and averaged 19.3 minutes over his three NBA seasons. But he could be on the slow-and-steady trek to stardom, and that journey could accelerate in an instant if Capela ever goes from the trade block to the transaction log.
Even in limited action, Okongwu has flashed tantalizing talent at both ends. While a touch undersized for the center spot (6’8″, 235 lbs), his 7’2″ wingspan, strength and athleticism allow him to play bigger than his size. He’s already a top-shelf shot-blocker (career 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes), but his quickness and versatility might be his best defensive weapons.
Offense is more of a question mark, but his growth potential is undeniable. He is a reliable finisher at the rim, where he utilizes both power and ambidexterity. But he has dabbled in outside shooting and flashed advanced processing skills that could make him a sneaky source of passing.
Alperen Şengün is a throwback big who could one day dominate the modern game with physicality, low-post prowess and some of the best big-man passing you’ll find from a center not named Nikola Jokić. There’s a real chance Şengün is always a one-way player, and yet his offensive outlook is so blindingly bright, he still lands comfortably in the top 10.
He blends grace with power in a way that forces opposing defenses into a host of bad options. Should they allow their interior defender to get buried beneath an avalanche of spins, pivots, up fakes and hook shots, or do they send an extra help knowing the big fella is almost certain to spot an open receiver before the help arrives?
If he ever adds a reliable three-ball—the 21-year-old isn’t afraid to fire, he just needs to up his accuracy—then it might be curtains. The Rockets should lean on him more as an offensive fulcrum, and if he expands his range, that will become even more obvious. They’ll need to continue upping his offensive usage, too, since he has to pile up points and assists in order to cover up his defensive limitations as a 6’9″ center who lacks lift and the lateral quickness to survive perimeter switches.
It could have taken ages for the Jazz to find a suitable replacement for Rudy Gobert, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year and four-time All-NBA honoree. Turns out, Utah found that player in the same trade that sent Gobert out of Salt Lake City.
Walker Kessler might not have a trio of DPOYs in his future—but don’t rule it out—but he looks an awful lot like his predecessor. In fact, he arguably had a better 2022-23 campaign, as he bested Gobert in blocks per 36 minutes (3.7 to 1.6), field-goal percentage (72 to 65.9) and shooting percentage allowed at the rim (51.5 to 58.1).
Like Gobert, Kessler may never off a ton of utility away from the basket (outside of setting brick-wall screens), but he could control the interior on a nightly basis. There are players on this list with more offensive upside, but few project to be as strong on the defensive end.
Jabari Smith Jr.’s fist NBA go-round was rough and not in ways that can be easily dismissed. For someone whose primary skill is shot-making—and who stands 6’10” tall—he produced shockingly low conversion rates from the field (40.8 percent) and from three (30.7).
But one season does not a career make. He faced a steep learning curve, sure, but he was also a teenager facing the best professional hoopers on the planet. He was also forced to settle for whatever scraps he could find in a young, pass-averse Rockets’ offense (29th in assist percentage). He could be the single biggest beneficiary of Fred VanVleet’s addition, since Smith now has a chance to feast off on-time, on-target passes in his sweet spots.
He has shown some growth in his game already, too. Over the final 17 outings of his rookie season, he averaged 16.4 points on 46.5/35.6/77.8 shooting. Then, he went out and torched summer league defenses to the tune of 35.5 points on 48.8/33.3/85.2 shooting across two contests. In other words, he might already be climbing toward his towering his ceiling which features nothing less than all-league defense and quantity-plus-quality deep-distance shooting.
Injuries and flow problems plagued Jaren Jackson Jr. his first three NBA seasons, limiting his exposure and slowing his ascension. But those issues started to evaporate in the past two campaigns—the foul issues remain, but they aren’t as severe—revealing the Grizzlies’ frontcourt pace to be one of the best young bigs in basketball.
He might be the Association’s best shot-blocker (league-leading block averages the past two seasons say the “might” qualifier isn’t needed), but tethering him to the paint would limit the many layers to his defensive game. He can clog the middle as well as anyone, but he’s best when wreaking havoc all over the floor: switching onto ball-handlers, getting out to shooters, racing back in transition and swatting shots on weak-side rotations.
If you picked an interior anchor to build a long-term defense around, Jackson, this past season’s Defensive Player of the Year, would factor prominently in that decision.
So, why isn’t he ranked even higher? Well, there are two sides to a basketball court, and his offense may never catch up to his elite defense. He is a valuable contributor as a floor-spacer, lob-finisher and occasional shot-creator, but he could wind up a tier (or more) behind the top four players on this list as pure scoring threats.
Evan Mobley’s first two NBA seasons have been more encouraging than earth-shattering, but that’s fine. He is two years removed from being the No. 3 pick and two months removed from his 22nd birthday. This is not at all a race-against-time type of situation.
Baby steps would be enough at this juncture, but the 7-footer has opted for long strides instead. He already looks like the defensive answer to today’s do-it-all offensive stars, an intimidating interior anchor with the fluidity and resolve to silence perimeter players on switches.
His offensive projection is harder to calculate, since he fills an ancillary in a Cleveland offense built around attacking guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Many of Mobley’s scoring chances are being created for him, but even then, he has found chances to utilize his own playmaking. Get him more touches with better spacing around him, and his passing could really shine.
Will he ever be an offensive focal point, though? Or how about a reliable outside shooter? Those possibilities are on the table, but they are far from guaranteed. If he’s a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate who tallies 20 points, 10 boards and a handful of assists per night, the Cavs won’t be complaining, but that isn’t quite the superstar ceiling possessed by the top three players on this list.
Physically, there are worries with Chet Holmgren. His slight 195-pound frame hardly seems built for the punishment dished out on the NBA post, and he already lost his would-be rookie season to a foot injury, and you always worry about lower-body injuries with 7-footers.
He needs to stay healthy to justify a top-three ranking (and he’s not the only one), but when the biggest concern about a player isn’t connected to skills, that usually means you’re talking about a top-tier talent. And that’s absolutely the case with 2022’s No. 2 pick, who could be both an elite rim protector and a perimeter shot-creator.
If he logs heavy minutes, he could compete for the league’s blocks title as a freshman. Between his 7’6″ wingspan, advanced feel and competitiveness, he’ll consistently impact opponents’ shots at the basket. Then on offense, he can either spread the floor as a stretch three or find his own shots on the ball, taking slower defenders off the driller and shooting over the top of smaller ones. When he can’t call his own number, he’s a willing and able passer.
In his best-case scenario, he’s one of the NBA’s top defenders and a go-to scorer at the other end. That’s an MVP candidate if his team is successful enough.
Zion Williamson’s many absences have surrounded him with red flags. At this point, there must be an admission that his medical maladies could prevent him from having anything close to the kind of career so many expected from the 2019’s top pick.
So, why continue to rank him this high? Two reasons. First, there’s always a chance a clean bill of health comes at some point. Second, we’ve all seen how absurdly dominant he is when his body allows him to play.
The fact he has only played 114 games in four seasons is jarring, but it’s far from the only number jumping off his stat sheet. His average per-game contributions—with less than two seasons’ worth of games so far and while navigating around so many health problems—include 25.8 points on 60.8 percent shooting, 7.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists.
To put those numbers in context, the NBA has only seen three seasons in which someone averaged 25 points on 60 percent shooting, seven rebounds and 3.5 assists. Charles Barkley supplied one, and Williamson authored the other two. He is historically dominant already and, at just 23 years old, presumably nowhere near his peak. His stats have substance, too, as New Orleans has fared 6.3 points better per 100 possessions with him than without.
There is no way of knowing what the future holds for his health, but you can say with certainty that if he ever did hold up for 70-plus games, he’d likely exit that campaign with All-NBA credentials and possibly MVP support. He needs to improve as a defender and expand his offensive range, but even with those warts, he is a superstar when healthy.
Is it hyperbolic, wildly optimistic or maybe even irresponsible to slot Victor Wembanyama into the No. 1 spot before he’s even played an NBA game? In a word: not one bit. Not when his potential stretches to a point at which he either evolves the game of basketball or brings it to its final point of evolution.
Now, that might ring a pinch hyperbolic, but it’s impossible to set the bar too high for the most celebrated prospect since LeBron James. Wembanyama stands 7’5″ tall, sports a wholly unfair 8’0″ wingspan and checks the dribble-shoot-pass boxes of an all-purpose wing. Hoop lifers swear they’ve never seen a player like Wemby. Even James, a 6’9″, 250-pound cyborg, thinks the incoming rookie’s talents are other-worldly.
“If he’s not hurt, he’ll be the greatest player ever,” one NBA agent told Forbes’ Adam Zagoria.
Wembanyama’s scouting report reads like some hoops fantasy come to life. His size-skill-fluidity combo comes along once in a generation—if ever. He has a perimeter shot (off the catch or the dribble) and a post game. He protects the paint, can switch onto wings and uses is length to contest anything in his zip code. He dazzles as a screener, since he can roll, pop or pass, but he can also initiate pick-and-roll plays. He competes and communicates. Anything you’d want from a basketball player is either in his bag or could be there soon.
This might technically be all potential now, but, assuming good health, all arrows point to a historically great career—maybe the greatest we’ve seen to date if he maxes out his full potential.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
