Ranking the Top 30 Projected 2024 NBA Free Agents – Bleacher Report

A few potential difference-makers from the 2023 NBA free-agent class are still remaining, but the board has otherwise largely been picked clean.
Because player movement (or rumors related to it) never seems to take a break, it’s already time to look forward to next summer.
For the most part, we know who will be on the market. But knowing who’ll be considered the biggest names up for grabs takes loads of projection. The 2023-24 season hasn’t happened yet, and one year can dramatically change the perception of a player.
So, while these rankings will be based on age, plenty of numbers and observable trends in the game, they’ll also require a lot of subjectivity. Add in expected production and role in 2023-24 as well, and these players look like the biggest prizes in 2024 NBA free agency.

Nikola Jokić was the best player and driving force behind the Denver Nuggets’ championship. Jamal Murray provided some killer instinct that was clearly missing from each of Denver’s previous two playoff runs.
But there was an even less tangible grit or demeanor that often came from the hyper-competitive, multipositional Bruce Brown, who’ll aggressively take on any defensive assignment and hit just enough shots to force opponents to pay attention.
While there’s some concern that Brown’s production could dip now that he’s away from Jokić’s playmaking, his new point guard (Tyrese Haliburton) is no slouch. That attitude isn’t going anywhere, either.
After another year of showcasing his versatility, he could be in for a second big contract if the Indiana Pacers decline his $23.0 million team option for the 2024-25 season.

It took him a while to find his groove in the NBA, but Alec Burks has quietly become one of the league’s steadier wings over the last few years. He isn’t currently showing signs of slowing down despite turning 32 in July, either.
Over the last four years, Burks has averaged 13.0 points, 2.6 assists and 1.9 threes (on 40.3 percent shooting) in only 26.1 minutes per game. Across that same stretch, his teams are plus-0.2 points per 100 possessions when he plays and minus-4.9 when he doesn’t.
At 6’6″, Burks has solid positional size and plenty of experience as a multipositional defender. He’s even had stretches with both the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks in which he ably played some point guard in a pinch.

Whether as a creator or more of a three-and-D cog in the machine, Burks can fit a number of different teams and roles.

Russell Westbrook’s on-court reputation was already starting to fracture before the trade that sent him to the Los Angeles Lakers, but the poor fit there undoubtedly sped up that process.
Westbrook never made sense as a No. 3 alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That trio doesn’t have enough shooting, and it forced Westbrook into more of an off-ball role than he ever should have had. It should’ve surprised no one that he looked worse there.
After the Los Angeles Clippers acquired him midseason, though, we started to see hints of a player who may have a few good years left. When surrounded by decent shooting and switchable, rangy defenders, Westbrook’s competitiveness and ability to get to the rim and collapse defenses into the paint looked useful.
Over the Clippers’ final four playoff games last season (all of which Paul George missed and three of which Kawhi Leonard missed), Westbrook kept his team competitive against Kevin Durant and Devin Booker’s Phoenix Suns. In those contests, he averaged 27.3 points, 7.3 assists, 6.8 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals.
On the right team, and in the right role, Westbrook can still move the needle in a positive direction. The worry is that he turns 35 in November. His athleticism could slip dramatically in the near future, and he has never shown the kind of shooting ability necessary to make that loss of athleticism easier to deal with.

Much like Russell Westbrook, Markelle Fultz isn’t a great three-point shooter, either. Over his six NBA seasons, he’s made only 27.8 percent of his long-range attempts. His career effective field-goal percentage is comfortably below-average as well.
But Fultz is 10 years younger than Westbrook, and he looks like he could be a more impactful defender than Westbrook has ever been.
With a 6’9″ wingspan and solid defensive instincts, Fultz can frustrate opposing guards at the point of attack or make quick rotations to stymie offensive sets.
He’s also a solid playmaker who has averaged 5.4 assists since he joined the Orlando Magic ahead of the 2019 trade deadline. His shiftiness and improved shot selection have made him a more effective weapon around the rim in recent years, too.

In recent years, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has willingly embraced a smaller role and thrived. He was a key ingredient of title runs with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2019-20 and the Denver Nuggets this past season.
He’ll happily take on the opposition’s best point guard or shooting guard defensively and knock down plenty of threes on the other end.
Over the last four seasons, Caldwell-Pope has averaged 10.9 points, 1.8 threes and 1.1 steals in 29.0 minutes while shooting 40.2 percent from deep. He’s become one of the NBA’s more reliable and experienced three-and-D guards, and he just turned 30 in February.

De’Anthony Melton just turned 25 in May. He’s been one of the NBA’s more dynamic backcourt defenders since he joined the league in 2018. More recently, he’s added a reliable three-point shot to go with that defense.
Melton is tied for the sixth-best career steal percentage over the last 20 years. And since the start of the 2020-21 season, he’s connected on 38.8 percent of his shots from deep.
Those two ingredients alone would make Melton a worthwhile addition for plenty of teams. He also offers some decent shot-creation and distribution skill.
Playing alongside ball-dominant stars like James Harden and Joel Embiid limited Melton’s ability to showcase that in 2022-23, but he assisted on over 20 percent of his team’s possessions in each of his first two NBA seasons.

Among the players highlighted so far, Cole Anthony’s spot on this list probably requires the most projection. According to Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus, he’s yet to have an above-average season in the NBA.
In 2022-23, his minutes, points and assists per game all tumbled significantly. Playing on an Orlando Magic team with Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs and incoming rookie Anthony Black makes it difficult to see his path back to 30-plus minutes per game.
But he may not need to be that to be a high-impact NBA player.
Anthony’s scoring efficiency skyrocketed in 2022-23 as his minutes declined. He isn’t quite up to league-average yet, but he’s close enough for a heat-check guard off the bench.
That’s probably how Anthony should be seen going forward. He can be a change-of-pace guard who gets shots and buckets up in a hurry and changes the complexion of a game with a hot streak right when his team needs it.
In a contract year that happens to coincide with the Magic potentially being ready to push for a play-in spot, teams around the league will take notice.

Christian Wood is still a free agent, and it’s hard to envision him landing a multiyear deal at this point. That means he’ll likely be a free agent again next summer.
Based on raw production alone, it’s hard to understand why Wood remains unsigned. Over the last three seasons, he’s put up 18.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.8 threes and 1.1 blocks in only 29.3 minutes per game while shooting 38.1 percent from deep.
Those numbers and an ability to space the floor as a 5 should make Wood one of the NBA’s more coveted bigs. However, he has to prove something beyond box scores.
Fair or not, Wood has developed a reputation for struggling to fit within a team concept. Despite his impressive shot-blocking numbers, his defense has often left something to be desired as well.
“If LeBron [James] can get him to toe the line, it cements LeBron as the greatest player of all time,” an NBA source told The Los Angeles Times‘ Dan Woike. “That’s how hard it is.”
That seems hyperbolic, and you never know what angle an unnamed source might be pursuing. But there’s no denying that sentiment is out there about Wood.

Tobias Harris’ individual stock around the league has probably dipped a bit. He’s entering his age-31 season, and his 14.7-points-per-game average last year was his lowest since 2015-16.
But taking a step back can also be sold as a positive on his resume. Harris, despite his $37.6 million salary, was willing to cede all control of the Philadelphia 76ers offense to Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. That left him with a condensed, catch-and-shoot heavy role that wasn’t befitting of his paycheck.
When Harris enters free agency in 2024, though, he’ll no longer be seen as a near-$40-million player. As a three-and-D wing with decent size and a willingness and ability to guard multiple positions, Harris can be more than helpful.
In the right situation, he might even be able to generate some offense as a secondary or tertiary playmaker. He’s had a 10-plus assist percentage in each of the last six seasons. He peaked at 17.6 percent in 2020-21, one year prior to the arrival of Harden.

Spencer Dinwiddie is far from the most efficient scorer in the league. He’s had an above-average true shooting percentage in just two of his nine seasons. The last time he was above-average was 2018-19.
But his willingness to get up threes in bunches and to draw defenses inside before kicking out to teammates has made him an effective offensive engine nevertheless.
The last two times he was the clear lead playmaker (2019-20 with the Brooklyn Nets and again after he was traded there last season), his team scored significantly more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
Inconsistency and the fact that he’ll be 31 next offseason are mild concerns, but teams searching for offensive help in 2024-25 could look past both.

For the last few years, Tyus Jones has widely been known as one of the game’s best backup point guards. There’s a solid argument that he might just be the best.
After eight seasons in that role, he should get a chance with the Washington Wizards in 2023-24 to show if he can keep up his level of play as a full-time starter.
Since he joined the Memphis Grizzlies ahead of the 2019-20 campaign, Jones has averaged 8.3 points, 4.5 assists and a measly 0.8 turnovers in 20.6 minutes per game. Over the last two years, Memphis outscored opponents by 5.4 points per 100 possessions with Jones on the floor and Ja Morant off.
The Wizards are worse than the Grizzlies, but Jones will have a more prominent role this year. That should lead to enough attention to land him a solid contract in 2024.

Devin Vassell broke out with 18.5 points, 3.6 assists and 2.7 threes per game while shooting 38.7 percent from three last season. He also doesn’t even turn 23 until late August.
At that age, with that kind of production, and with prototypical wing size (6’5″ with a 6’10” wingspan), Vassell will undoubtedly have suitors in restricted free agency if he doesn’t sign an extension with the San Antonio Spurs this offseason.
Barring some outlandish offer sheet, though, it’s hard to imagine the Spurs letting him go.
Victor Wembanyama is San Antonio’s franchise cornerstone moving forward, but the Spurs front office should be interested in surrounding him with as many rangy shooters as possible. Vassell fits that mold.

He’ll still have Clint Capela standing in the way of some minutes. If the Atlanta Hawks are smart, De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson could soak up a lot of playing time at the 4, too.
But with John Collins now on the Utah Jazz, Onyeka Okongwu could be in line for a bigger role this season. Even if he’s not, he might wind up forcing head coach Quin Snyder’s hand.
Okongwu has a chance to be a dynamic rim protector, and he’s one of the NBA’s better bigs at switching onto perimeter players without it immediately creating a mismatch. His versatility and ability to defend all over the floor should become increasingly important as teams further lean into postitionless basketball.
More minutes with Trae Young setting him up for easy looks around the rim could raise Okongwu’s offensive profile around the league, too.

Kyle Anderson may be the NBA’s quintessential jack of all trades, master of none.
Over the last three years, Anderson has averaged a well-rounded 9.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks in only 25.7 minutes per game. He also shot a “just good enough to keep defenders honest” 36.4 percent from deep.
In college, and for much of his NBA career piloting second units, he’s essentially operated as the point guard on offense. But his 6’9″ frame and 7’3″ wingspan make him a defensive option against bigs. In the right situation, he could even play some point center.
All of that in concert with his “slow-mo” style, ability to see the whole floor as a playmaker or defender and over-the-top competitiveness makes Anderson one of the league’s more unusual difference-makers. He could fit anywhere as a free agent in 2024.

Like Kyle Anderson, Josh Hart has shown an ability to check a bunch of different boxes in the NBA.
Despite standing only 6’5″, he’s a relentless rebounder who can secure extra possessions for his team seemingly out of nowhere. He’s willing and able to defend at least three positions. The 4.0 assists he averaged over the last two seasons is solid for a non-lead playmaker, too.
In his 13 games with the Portland Trail Blazers in 2021-22, when he put up 19.9 points and shot 37.3 percent from three, he even showed some alpha scorer instincts. Hart isn’t likely to be called upon to use those much going forward—the Blazers were clearly tanking during that stretch—but knowing they’re there is a plus.
Adding that to the rest of his gap-filling game should make him an intriguing target in 2024, unless he signs an extension with the New York Knicks before then.

Given his career accomplishments, it may come as a surprise to see Klay Thompson barely crack the top 20 here. But he’s now 33 years old and has both a torn ACL and ruptured Achilles in his past.
You could argue that more distance from those injuries is a good thing. But at some point, age and scars start to coalesce and slow an NBA player down.
That moment may be coming for Klay, who averaged only 10.5 points and shot 25.0 percent from the field over his final four playoff games this past season. He also had a below-average defensive estimated plus-minus for the first time since 2015-16.
On the other hand, even if a decline in athleticism limits Thompson as a defender or closeout attacker, his three-point shot isn’t likely to abandon him at any point in his career. He’s coming off a season in which he averaged 21.9 points and shot 41.2 percent from deep.
Even if he starts to show his age a bit in 2023-24, some team—likely the Golden State Warriors—will talk itself into one more hefty contract for one of the best shooters of all time.

Shooting has always been the most important skill in basketball, but that seems especially true in recent years. Trading twos for threes is just asking for a loss when nearly 40 percent of all shot attempts in the NBA are now coming from deep.
In that leaguewide context, Buddy Hield is a highly valuable player. He’s hit 40.2 percent of his career three-point attempts and is tied with Damian Lillard and Klay Thompson for second all-time in career threes per game (their average of 3.1 trails only Stephen Curry’s 3.8).
Unlike some other high-volume floor-spacers over the years, Hield isn’t necessarily a disaster on defense. He was nearly average on that end of the floor last season, according to Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus.
That’s good enough for someone who can generate that many points from deep.

Jaden McDaniels has had an above-average defensive estimated plus-minus in each of his three NBA seasons. With his length (6’9″ with a 6’11” wingspan) and athleticism, he can be a nightmarish defender who can switch all over the floor and guard various archetypes.
In 2022-23, his offense started to catch up a bit with what he’s been doing on the other end.
McDaniels averaged a career-high 12.1 points and shot 39.8 percent from deep last season. If he can up his three-point volume a bit this season, he’d likely make himself more money as a restricted free agent next summer, provided he doesn’t sign an extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves before then.
What could really change his value, though, is a bit more creation (both for himself and others) off the dribble. His top-15 placement on this list is a vote of confidence that he’ll be able to show a bit more of that in 2023-24.

Thanks in large part to his defense, there’s at least an argument that Immanuel Quickley had a better 2022-23 campaign than Tyrese Maxey.
That argument probably comes up short—as evidenced by the fact that we have yet to reach Maxey on this list—but it’s fair to say Quickley is at least underrated.
He can guard both 1s and 2s despite standing only 6’3″. He’s a solid distributor for a guard who’s never been a full-time ball-handler in the NBA. Even though he’s inconsistent on offense at times, games like his 40-pointer against the Houston Rockets in March show he has plenty of upside, too.
Playing on a team with Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart and RJ Barrett will probably continue to limit Quickley’s minutes and role, but he’ll force enough opportunities to make a bigger name for himself ahead of restricted free agency in 2024.

Nic Claxton had a breakout campaign in 2022-23 with the Brooklyn Nets. He averaged a career-high 12.6 points and shot a league-leading 70.5 percent from the field.
Over the course of the season, it became clear that he’s one of the NBA’s most explosive rim-runners. His ability to catch, quickly elevate and dunk—or quickly elevate, catch and dunk in the case of alley-oops—forces defenses to pay attention to his cuts. That frees up precious extra tenths of a second for shooters to get attempts off in front of defenders recovering from Claxton in the middle of the floor.
Perhaps more importantly, though, Claxton’s defensive numbers skyrocketed in 2022-23.
He averaged career highs in defensive rebounds (6.8), blocks (2.5) and steals (0.9), and those increases weren’t simply the result of more minutes. His defensive rebound percentage and block percentage both took off like he was chasing a lob.
Against brawnier centers like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokić, Claxton’s slight frame can put him at a disadvantage, but he’s otherwise on track to be one of the game’s better centers. Besides, everyone struggles against perennial MVP candidates.

DeMar DeRozan turns 34 in August. And despite a brief reprieve from this career-long trend in 2021-22, DeRozan’s teams have had a worse net rating when he was on the floor in 10 of the past 11 seasons.
You can explain away one or two seasons like that with lineup or other situational context. It’s tough to do that for a 10-of-11 stretch.
Having said that, there’s no doubt that DeRozan is still one of the game’s most prolific inside-the-arc scorers.
Over his two seasons with the Chicago Bulls, he’s put up 26.2 points and shot 52.3 percent from two-point range. His 5.0 assists per game with Chicago are worth mentioning, too.
When he turns 35 next summer, he may be ready to deploy his mid-range shooting and playmaking as the No. 1 guy for a second unit. In that role, his defensive shortcomings and hesitance to shoot threes wouldn’t hurt as much. And the strengths of his game would be magnified against backup defenders.

They don’t play the same position, but Fred VanVleet’s departure from the Toronto Raptors could open up some playmaking opportunities for O.G. Anunoby. Toronto now has the opportunity to further embrace positionless basketball this coming season.
Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam should all have the ball in their hands a bit more this season, which could allow Anunoby to check one last box.
He’s already shown an ability to shut down (or at least seriously frustrate) opposing wings and forwards. He can blanket his defensive assignment without giving up passing lanes (and vice versa). And his 38.4 three-point percentage over the last four years gives us the other side of the three-and-D equation.
If he bumps his assist average closer to four or five per game, he’ll be one of next summer’s most prized free agents if (when?) he declines his player option.

As is the case with Spencer Dinwiddie, scoring efficiency (or lack thereof) has been a problem for Pascal Siakam for the bulk of his career. That’s a bigger problem for a power forward than a guard.
Many offenses make up for inefficiency from guards, who are often taking self-generated or otherwise more difficult shots, by getting easy buckets from the big guys.
Siakam has had a below-average true shooting percentage in six of his seven NBA seasons. The one time he was above-average, opposing defenses had to pay loads of attention to Kawhi Leonard.
He’s still in the top 10 of next year’s free-agent class for a few reasons.
For one thing, at 29 years old, he’s in the middle of his prime. He’s also a 6’9″ forward who can move like a wing and even play small-ball 5. That kind of versatility is going to be important over the life of his next contract.
But most importantly, Siakam has developed into a legitimate creator, if not quite a full-fledged point forward.
He’s set a career-high in assists per game in each of his seven NBA seasons, peaking at 5.8 in 2022-23. That kind of production from a big man can make life much easier for guards.

With James Harden on the roster for most of the last two seasons, Tyrese Maxey has often been designated the Philadelphia 76ers’ shooting guard. However, he’s played far more minutes without Harden than with him, so he still has plenty of experience as a de facto lead guard.
And his numbers in that context suggest he’s ready to officially take on that role, assuming the Sixers trade Harden at some point between now and the February trade deadline.
Over the last two seasons, with Harden off the floor, Maxey has put up 21.4 points and 5.3 assists per 75 possessions while shooting 41.3 percent from three. Those numbers are the product of lightning quickness and a more-than-reliable outside shot that doesn’t always accompany his level of athleticism.
Although his defense has been a cause for slight concern over the years, the offensive package should make him one of next summer’s most coveted restricted free agents. The Sixers have made it clear that they don’t plan to sign him to an extension this offseason, according to Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice, although they’re reportedly intent on keeping him long-term.

Kawhi Leonard’s absences (and load management) have garnered more attention, but Paul George’s lack of availability will be a real concern if he declines his $48.8 million player option and enters unrestricted free agency in 2024.
During his four seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers, PG has averaged 47.3 appearances per season. He’s tied for 43rd in minutes per game over that stretch but is 119th in total minutes.
Next summer, he’ll be 34 and could have another injury-plagued season behind him. That’s a lot of ingredients to potentially cool the market on the eight-time All-Star and top-three MVP finisher in 2019.
But there’s also a chance George finally clears 60 games for his first time as a Clipper. And if a little more durability accompanies a continuation of his production in L.A., where he’s put up 23.2 points, 4.9 assists and 3.1 threes per game while shooting 39.0 percent from deep, he’ll be one of next summer’s more coveted two-way wings.

After surprisingly picking up his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season, James Harden is now in a contract year ahead of what could be the last big contract of his career. Whether he’s playing for the Philadelphia 76ers or another team, he should be motivated to prove he’s worth one more long-term deal.
That should mean another 20-10 campaign. He’s done that in each of the last three seasons, and his combined averages over that stretch are 22.3 points and 10.5 assists per game.
Harden is no longer the dynamic athlete who can blow by just about anyone with his first step that he was at the peak of his Houston Rockets days, but the craft, patience and vision are all still there. And the leeway he’s gained with officials over the years has allowed him to replace more conventional drives with a battering-ram style that still gets him to the line.
Even the slowed-down version of Harden is a double-double machine, at least in the regular season.

If you wanted to nitpick Jrue Holiday’s free-agent case, you’d probably start with his playoff production.
Since joining the Milwaukee Bucks, he’s averaged 17.9 points and 7.9 assists per game in the postseason, but his shooting percentages have plummeted to 45.1 percent from two-point range and 30.4 percent from three.
The fact that he’ll be 34 next summer will factor into his future prospects, too. But Holiday’s playmaking and high-end perimeter defense, which have made him one of the NBA’s most positively impactful players over the last three seasons, should make him a top-five free agent if he declines his $37.4 million player option for the 2024-25 season.
Since the start of the 2020-21 campaign, Milwaukee is plus-1,472 with Holiday on the floor in the regular season and playoffs. That number trails only Nikola Jokić’s plus-1,534, and it isn’t just the product of Holiday sharing the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In the same stretch, the Bucks are plus-11.2 points per 100 possessions when Holiday and Antetokounmpo are both in the game and plus-2.2 when Giannis plays without Jrue.

Prior to the last few years, it would’ve been absurd to imagine that a 39-year-old might be a top-five free agent. But LeBron James has annihilated conventional wisdom on the aging curve of an NBA star.
During his age-38 season in 2022-23, LeBron averaged 28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 2.2 threes per game in the regular season and helped lead the Los Angeles Lakers to the Western Conference Finals.
It’s conceivable that his 2023-24 campaign could come with enough injuries or observable decline to tank his value, but we’ve been expecting that for years. It still hasn’t happened.
LeBron is still one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NBA. His experience is unparalleled. If he declines his $51.4 million player option for 2024-25 and enters free agency next summer, he’ll have plenty of highly motivated suitors.

Zion Williamson or Anthony Davis might be in the conversation, but at this point, few NBA players come with bigger health concerns than Kawhi Leonard.
He’s averaged just 40.3 appearances per year since he joined the Los Angeles Clippers. That number drops to 38.3 if you add the two seasons prior to his stint in L.A.
But Kawhi is one of the greatest playoff performers in NBA history. When healthy, he can impose his will on both ends of the floor in a way few others can.
Even though he’ll be 33 next summer, he figures to have plenty of suitors if he turns down his $48.4 million player option to become a free agent. Some team is bound to talk itself into the outside chance that he can make it through an entire postseason run.
If he does, and he has even moderate help from the rest of whatever roster is surrounding him, he’ll likely contend for a title.

Outside of Nikola Jokić (and perhaps Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler and Devin Booker), few players did as much to make or repair their on-court reputation during the 2023 postseason than Anthony Davis.
During the Los Angeles Lakers’ surprise run to the Western Conference Finals, Davis looked like the most dominant defender in the world. He also averaged 22.6 points, 14.1 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, 2.6 assists and 1.4 steals per game.
In those 16 games, the Lakers were plus-4.2 points per 100 possessions with AD on the floor and minus-3.9 without him.
Combining the fact that he’ll be 31 next summer with his injury history—he’s averaged only 44.0 appearances per season over the last three years—could give some teams pause. However, that playoff run was a vivid reminder of his upside.
Davis can still completely change a game with his defense while operating as a No. 2 (or 1B) on the other end.

source