Riskiest Big-Money 2023 NBA Free Agents – Bleacher Report

NBA free agency is always a high-stakes game with no place for the faint of heart, and the 2023 edition is shaping up to be no exception. It’s striking to note that so many of this summer’s best potentially available players are also among the riskiest.
The top talents are always costly, forcing teams to put significant resources at hazard. But the cream of this year’s crop comes with a litany of additional risk factors including age, reliability and uncertain fit outside of their current situations.
Of course, all of them have the potential to pay major dividends too. These are big names—starters, stars and future Hall of Famers in some cases. So the risk-reward calculus isn’t out of balance with the 2023 class, but it does feel like the extremes are further apart than usual. Even in cases where the most likely outcome is a return to their incumbent teams, many of these free agents still come with significant long- and short-term uncertainty.
In other words, any organization considering big expenditures this offseason needs to know that there’s no such thing as a safe bet on the board.

Where else could we possibly begin than with a discussion of the player best described as uncertainty incarnate?
Actually, in fairness to Kyrie Irving, there’s one ironclad given in his makeup: He’s a bucket.
It’s just that in conjunction with the eight-time All-Star’s breathtaking scoring skill, you have to accept that his commitment and availability cannot be relied upon. Irving owns a career scoring average of 23.4 points per game on a 47.2/39.2/88.4 shooting split, and he’s been even more prolific and efficient over the last several years. It’s a testament to his ability that all the non-basketball red flags in his profile haven’t cost him a career.
Any team taking Irving on as a free agent has to weigh his talent against a laundry list of concerns.
In addition to extensive (often voluntary) absences, Irving’s career has been defined by unpredictable moodiness, broken promises, suspensions, a general refusal to accept accountability—exemplified by his initial refusal to apologize and denounce antisemitism after promoting an antisemitic film on social media this fall—and an occasionally mind-numbing lack of self-awareness. He’s also missed significant time due to various injuries and hasn’t played more than 60 games in any of the past four seasons. Put all the other worries about his availability aside, and at 31, a health history like his is concerning on its own.
The Dallas Mavericks may be pot committed after trading for Irving. If they let him walk, Luka Dončić will be left wondering if his front office is ever going to deliver the supporting cast he needs. From there, it’s not hard to envision him becoming the next disgruntled star to seek a trade. Of course, the only thing scarier than that scenario might be committing to Irving on a costly multiyear deal.
Whether it’s the Mavs or some other team with the guts to offer Irving the max salary his play says he’s worth, it’s impossible to imagine anyone agreeing on a contract with him and leaving the interaction feeling assured a smooth ride is ahead.

James Harden seems likely to decline his player option for 2023-24 and enter unrestricted free agency. What happens from there is anybody’s guess.
The rumors of a Houston Rockets return won’t go away, strange as they are, and we should probably discuss the risks specific to that organization first. Because while the Rockets haven’t exactly inspired confidence that they’ve got something special brewing during a third straight season in the high lottery, reintroducing Harden to the team from which he forced his exit in 2021 would cause major disruption.
Suddenly, all the young players on the roster—Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Şengün, et al.—would have to adjust their roles and playing styles.
In light of how poorly the Rockets have performed, one could argue any change would constitute improvement. Houston’s .243 winning percentage since the start of the 2020-21 season is the worst in the league. It’s also true that Harden has morphed into a more deferential version of his past self. But Houston would have to know that bringing Harden back would basically short-circuit the incomplete rebuild and marginalize its developing prospects, all the while introducing a veteran leader whose off-court habits are examples for no one.
This all presumes Harden would want to win upon returning to the Rockets and not merely live comfortably in a city that loves him, cashing checks and checking out like he did in the lead-up to his exit. Reading that back, it doesn’t feel like that’s such a far-fetched possibility.
Many of the same risks signing Harden poses to Houston apply elsewhere, and we haven’t even gotten into the more general concerns about his age, conditioning, obvious decline and cost. If Harden opts out of $35.6 million for 2023-24, he’d have to do so expecting a multiyear deal worth considerably more than that in total. For example, he declined his $47.4 million player option for 2022-23 and got a two-year agreement (with the opt-out) totaling $68.4 million—and that was regarded as a below-market deal.
The Philadelphia 76ers should be losing sleep over the potential of paying him the max, even if it’s only on a two-year deal with a third-year option. A one-plus-one construction would mitigate the most risk, but there’s probably no such thing as getting Harden “cheaply”.
At 33 and playing for his third team in three years, Harden has a career trend line that is angling down. He wasn’t an All-Star this season for the first time since 2011-12, and his athleticism has nearly disappeared. Still a terrific passer and crafty enough to manufacture 20 points per game with ease, it’s not like Harden is without his uses. But even if he takes a small pay cut from this year’s reduced salary, he may not be worth the money.

The risk calculus is simpler for Kristaps Porziņģis than it was for Irving or Harden. Instead of worrying about non-basketball issues, level of commitment or potential decline, the only concern for KP is health. He’s cracked the 60-game mark this season, which is encouraging, but this is the first time he’s played that much since 2016-17. Potential suitors will have to decide whether this latest showing of durability outweighs Porziņģis’ much longer track record of persistent injury.
Of course, that same calculation affects whether Porziņģis will hit free agency at all. He and his camp have to decide whether it’s wise to give up a guaranteed $36.0 million in 2023-24 for a chance at a much bigger payout. There was a time when the idea of Porziņģis declining any amount of guaranteed cash would have been a non-starter, so it’s a great sign for him and his career prospects that entering the market this summer via player option is even a consideration.
The elephant in the room: The Washington Wizards can’t seem to stop themselves from overpaying to keep their own players, even when it consigns them to mediocrity. They did it with Bradley Beal and his quarter-billion-dollar contract, and it seems like they’re ready to follow the same plan with Porziņģis and fellow opt-out candidate Kyle Kuzma. Bringing those two back at above-market rates, combined with Beal’s salary, would vaporize Washington’s flexibility.
In fairness to Porziņģis, he’s been as effective as ever this season. The 7’3″ center is posting a career-high 61.9 true shooting percentage and upping Washington’s net rating by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. Questions linger on defense, where Porziņģis’ presence on the court coincides with a slight uptick in opponent accuracy at the rim (not good for a starting center). He still deters attempts inside reasonably well, but his lack of perimeter mobility will only become a bigger concern as he ages—particularly with those injury issues still looming.
As is the case for every free agent, this will come down to a bang-for-buck ratio. The 27-year-old is an undeniably skilled and productive starter with a rare combination of physical tools. Every team should want him, but not without a firm ceiling on price. If Porziņģis is turning down $36.0 million, particularly with the cap going up in 2025, he probably expects something at or above that annual rate on a long-term contract.

Imagining Draymond Green on another team has always been an interesting thought experiment. Would he be as impactful outside of the Golden State Warriors system he’s helped create? Does he need an offensive teammate as dominant and dynamic as Stephen Curry to offset his own lack of scoring and stretch? Would his pileup of technical fouls and general volatility be accepted someplace that wasn’t indebted to him for helping build a decade-long dynasty?
For the first time in years, we may get a chance to answer those questions in a non-hypothetical way. Back in October, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Green was “almost assuredly” going to exercise his $27.6 million player option for 2023-24, but Green’s comments to B/R’s Taylor Rooks in January suggested he’s prepared for the possibility of playing elsewhere.
Maybe that scenario won’t come until the start of the 2024-25 season, but we shouldn’t dismiss the chance that Green will turn down his option and hit the market in search of a new deal with a lower annual salary but more guaranteed money overall.
Green could follow the Harden blueprint in Philly by opting out and re-signing with Golden State, the team with the best understanding of the risk/reward dichotomy he brings. The Michigan native could sign with the Detroit Pistons, one of the few teams with cap space and one that showed a willingness to add vets to a young core when it traded for and later extended Bojan Bogdanović this past fall.
Green may find it difficult to land on a winner if he opts out, as the Sacramento Kings are the closest thing to a contender with the ability to give him more than $15 million per season—and that’d require them letting Harrison Barnes walk for nothing.
Green is 33, but he’s bucking the trend of rapid decline for undersized defenders (6’6″). If you got one pick to anchor a postseason defense, his versatility and know-how might still make him the guy.
Consider too that Green is shooting it better from long range than he has since 2015-16, has finished more efficiently around the rim these last two years than at any point in his career and remains one of the most intelligent floor-readers in the league. As long as his mind stays sharp, Green could remain effective and drive winning for at least another couple of years.
Or, he could lose a half-step athletically, regress on offense and become something close to unplayable—especially on another team that runs a more conventional system.

Anyone who says you can’t be all things to all people hasn’t studied Jerami Grant’s career trajectory.
A low-usage spot-up threat with the “Process” Sixers to start his career, Grant then became a switch-defending ace with the Oklahoma City Thunder. After a stop with the Denver Nuggets that saw Grant marry defensive versatility with higher-volume shooting, he turned into a top option with the Detroit Pistons. Now in the final year of his deal with the Portland Trail Blazers, Grant has summoned pieces of all those former selves and is producing a career year.
With a personal-best 60.6 true shooting percentage on a relatively low 22.9 percent usage rate, Grant is undeniably a high-end offensive force. That said, his presence in Portland hasn’t improved the team’s defense. And assuming the Blazers top out as a play-in survivor that gets eliminated in the first round, it’ll be hard to view Grant as a real difference-maker. That wouldn’t be a problem if he were in line to keep his current pay rate of $21 million per season, but anyone forking over something closer to $30 million should have concerns.
That’s in the neighborhood of a star’s salary, but Grant is going to finish this season as the second- or third-best player on a losing team.
Grant didn’t sign the four-year, $112 million extension the Blazers offered earlier this year. Though he has until June 30 to accept that deal, declining to do so at the first opportunity is a signal he expects to do better in free agency.
Any team that signs him (or re-signs, in Portland’s case) will be getting a costly player who hasn’t actually contributed to much team success when in a featured role. Grant might look better elsewhere, and he could even improve if the Blazers add talent on the margins around him. But there’s a specific risk attached to his free agency.
Paying star rates for merely solid starters is one of the surest ways to hamstring a franchise.

Dillon Brooks is 27, defends as if every opponent just threw a deeply personal insult toward his immediate family and has been a full-time starter for a Memphis Grizzlies team that will make the playoffs for the third straight season.
How, exactly, is that a risky profile?
Well, for one thing, Brooks is about as far from “plug and play” as it gets. Ideally, non-star wings fit anywhere because they can defend and knock down open shots without taking anything off the table for their teams. Brooks has the defense part down, but his offensive game is another story. Among the 143 players who’ve attempted at least 500 shots this season, Brooks’ 48.8 true shooting percentage ranks 142nd. Considering No. 143, Killian Hayes, has taken 200 fewer attempts, Brooks rates as perhaps the most damaging offensive player in the league.
The competitive stubbornness that makes Brooks such a tireless defender also seems to cloud his judgment on offense. At least a half-dozen times per game, he hoists shots that should have stayed holstered. No one who’s attempted as many as Brooks’ 383 three-pointers has a worse hit rate.
An obvious key to Memphis’ elite defense, Brooks is also part of the reason the Grizzlies haven’t ranked higher than 22nd in half-court offense during any year of his career. That’s an even bigger issue in the playoffs, where scoring against set defenses is so key to success. Brooks shot 31.6 percent for the series in a 2022 conference semifinals loss to the Golden State Warriors, and he has been the loudest voice in an escalating war of words with the defending champs ever since.
Anyone considering Brooks in free agency had better have ample shooting at every other spot on the floor and a willingness to embrace his brashness. Memphis has no aversion to defiant talk, and it understands the give and take of rostering Brooks and his league-leading 18 technical fouls better than anyone. That’s why a return to the Grizzlies is the likeliest option, albeit a potentially costly one.
Brooks could have signed an extension for up to four years and $61.3 million to stay in Memphis, but he never reached an agreement last offseason. Don’t be surprised if he commands an average annual salary of at least $20 million in free agency.
That’s a lot of money for a one-way player with a penchant for riling up opponents and a shaky postseason track record.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through March 21. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.

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