College basketball bracketology 2024: Kansas, Duke earn No. 1 seeds in Joe Lunardi's updated projections – 247Sports

College basketball teams across the nation are reporting for practice, building anticipation for what should be an exciting 2023-24 campaign. Blue-bloods Kansas and Duke headline our preseason top-25 after strong offseasons have each team poised to build on last year’s second-round NCAA Tournament exits. Bracket guru Joe Lunardi has a similar outlook for the Jayhawks and Blue Devils as college rosters near completion with transfer portal action winding down.
Lunardi has tabbed each program as a No. 1 seed in his updated NCAA Tournament projections. Lunardi designed an early look at the potential field of 68, noted his “first four out,” and assigned seeds to every team in his theoretical bracket. According to his projections, the Big 12 will lead all conferences with nine tournament selections.
The SEC ranks second with eight, while the Big Ten (seven) and Big East (six) round out the top four. The ACC and Pac-12 are tied with five apiece.
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Here are Lunardi’s updated set of predictions for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:
Ohio State
St. John’s
New Mexico
Stanford
Ohio State missed the NCAA Tournament in 2022-23 and took multiple hits to their roster this offseason, losing leading scorers Brice Sensabaugh and Justice Sueing, along with veteran guard Sean McNeil. The Buckeyes welcome the nation’s No. 11 recruiting class in addition to talented Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle, and head coach Chris Holtmann hopes it’s enough to avoid missing consecutive tournaments for the first time during his tenure in Columbus. Meanwhile, Lunardi has St. John’s on the cusp of tournament play in its first year under Rick Pitino.
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 South Dakota State
No. 8 Xavier vs. No. 9 Northwestern
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon
No. 4 Arkansas v.s No. 13 Kent State
Kansas earns the No. 1 overall seed in Lunardi’s bracket. The Jayhawks bolstered their chances of earning a second national title in three years when they added Hunter Dickinson — the No. 1 player in the 2023 transfer portal — from Michigan. With other key returnees and top-five point guard recruit Elmarko Jackson in the fold, Bill Self has his Jayhawks poised for yet another successful campaign. Arkansas lost its three leading scorers from a season ago, but Lunardi has faith the addition of the nation’s No. 14 recruiting and No. 7 transfer classes can land the Razorbacks its third 4-seed or better in the last four seasons.
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Providence / Texas Tech
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 7 TCU vs. No. 10 Oregon
No. 2 Creighton vs. No. 15 Wright State
A loaded bottom half of the bracket features tournament mainstays Creighton and Gonzaga and reigning national runner-up San Diego State. TCU and Oregon provides an intriguing matchup, though the Ducks could end up with a higher seed after returning its two leading leading scorers from a season ago.
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 McNeese State
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Colorado
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Drake
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Charleston
The return of consensus National Player of the Year Zach Edey gives Purdue an obvious claim to a No. 1 seed in early tournament predictions. The 7-foot-4 double-double machine was instrumental in the Boilermakers landing a top seed in last year’s field, but shortcomings on the perimeter proved costly as Purdue became just the second team ever to lose to a No. 16 seed. How far will Alabama fall after losing Brandon Miller and other standouts from its No. 1 overall seed-earning 2022-23 squad? Lunardi slots Alabama on the four-line, suggesting Nate Oats will boast another competitive squad in Tuscaloosa this year.
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Virginia / West Virginia
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Florida
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Weber State
There are a lot of familiar names on this side of the bracket, including traditional powerhouses Kentucky and Virginia, two programs poised for down years, according to Lunardi. The Cavaliers return just 28.8% of its offensive production from a season ago, but it’s never wise to doubt head coach Tony Bennett. The same can be said for John Calipari as he looks to get the Wildcats into the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2018-19. Reigning No. 1 seed Houston rounds out a loaded selection of eight squads.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Morehead / Texas Southern
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 13 James Madison
Duke boasts a strong veteran presence next season after returning Kyle Filipowski (15.1 ppg.), Jeremy Roach (13.6 ppg.), Tyrese Proctor (9.4 ppg.) and Mark Mitchell (9.1 ppg.). The stellar quartet is a big reason why Duke is among the top teams in preseason polls and is viewed as a bonafide national championship contender. The Blue Devils get some tough pulls on their side of the bracket with FAU, a reigning Final Four team, and Texas A&M, which returns star guard Wade Taylor and a majority of its depth from a season ago.
No. 6 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 11 Kansas State
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 Long Beach State
No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Radford
The defending national champions earn a No. 2 seed in Lunardi’s projections. UConn headlines six Big East teams in the first edition of the hypothetical 68-team field despite losing sharpshooter Jordan Hawkins and dominant big man Adama Sanogo to the NBA. Arizona fell in the first round as a two-seed last year but looks to make a deeper run this year with the help of UNC transfer Caleb Love, whose clutch shot-making propelled the Tar Heels to the Final Four in 2021-22.
No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 16 Howard / Wagner
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Iowa State
No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Furman
Michigan State returns five of the top six scorers from a team that came up five points shy of reaching the Elite Eight as a No. 7 seed last year, giving Tom Izzo all kinds of weapons as he seeks a national championship. Add a pair of blue-chip recruits in Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears to that core, and the Spartans look like a top-5 team in the nation. A Sweet 16 matchup with UNC would make for must-watch TV. The Tar Heels missed the tournament last year but underwent a massive roster overhaul this offseason and have had the Spartans’ number in recent years, winning six of the last seven matchups.
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Dayton
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Eastern Kentucky
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Clemson
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Iona
The return of veterans Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James highlight a productive offseason for Tennessee, which should have all the talent it needs to improve upon a strong — yet shaky at times — 2022-23 campaign. USC’s immensely talented backcourt, which includes incoming freshman Bronny James, gives the Trojans a chance for a special final year in the Pac-12. The Trojans may not even need James to produce at a significant level to reach their ceiling, with No. 2 overall recruit Isaiah Collier, incoming transfer DJ Rodman and returning veteran Boogie Ellis capable of carrying them to success. Texas is also looking to go out with a bang and is poised for another strong year as Rodney Terry takes over the full-time coaching duties.
Carter Bahns contributed to this report.
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