College basketball transfer portal: Revisiting biggest what-ifs from 2022 cycle – 247Sports

Lessons learned in the 2022 transfer portal class will undoubtedly be put to the test in the looming 2023 cycle. The portal’s magical doors open March 13 — just one day after Selection Sunday — and the reverberations from some bombshell here-or-there decisions are still being felt in the bowels of college basketball offices throughout the country. The discussions of who and what to target in the transfer portal have been impacted.
And it’s mattered on the court, too.
Many teams who are on the outside looking in for the 2023 NCAA Tournament feel like they are one piece away from dancing. They were extra close to locking that down in the transfer portal a few months ago. Conversely, teams like Providence, Illinois and Miami are safely in the Big Dance projections because they’ve been carried by their prized transfer portal additions.
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Seven decisions in the transfer portal have had a major impact on how the 2022-23 campaign is playing out and what could be in store during the 60-day transfer portal window.
Terrence Shannon Jr. to Michigan was done. Even his AAU coach was tweeting about it. But an academic kerfuffle ensued with transfer credits, and Shannon ended up at Illinois. Hunter Dickinson did not hide his displeasure with Texas Tech coach Mark Adams for the brouhaha.
Michigan’s loss turned out to be Illinois’ gain. Shannon is tied for sixth in the Big Ten in scoring (17 points per game), and he’s been one of the most-productive transfers in the country. Michigan is on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament at 15-12 overall. Shannon’s offense would’ve obviously given Michigan a shot in the arm, but he would’ve been a breath of fresh air and a much-needed plug for Michigan’s shoddy perimeter defense.
Shannon-to-Illinois made the Illini a dangerous NCAA Tournament team. Shannon not going to Michigan could be what keeps the Wolverines out of the Big Dance.
When Pack entered the transfer portal, he quickly became one of the top available guards. No one in the portal could fill it up from 3-point range like Pack. Purdue had a wide-open hole in its backcourt, and Pack — an Indianapolis native — took a visit to Purdue. Adding a dynamic sniper like Pack to the Purdue backcourt would’ve made it even tougher to double-team the unguardable Zach Edey.
But Pack had his sights set on South Beach. Thanks to a public, two-year, $800,000 deal with LifeWallet, Pack opted to pick Miami over Purdue.
Both teams have ended up doing just fine. Pack has had a phenomenal year for Miami, and he’s shooting the cover off the ball during ACC play. Miami looks like the ACC team with the highest ceiling in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue rolled with freshmen guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, and the Boilermakers are on pace to be a No. 1 seed and win the Big Ten Championship.
Tyrese Hunter was set up to be a star at Iowa State. He stamped a Big 12 Freshman of the Year season with a legendary performance in the NCAA Tournament to lead the Cyclones to the Sweet 16.
Less than a month later, he entered the transfer portal and landed at Big 12 rival Texas.
The Longhorns have had a fabulous season — they are tied for first in the Big 12 with Kansas — but Hunter hasn’t transformed into a Big 12 Player of the Year candidate.
Hunter’s volume and production have dipped, and Marcus Carr and Sir’Jabari Rice have been Texas’ best guards. 29.7% of Hunter’s possessions last year at Iowa State were in pick-and-rolls, according to Synergy. That’s down to 25.7% at Texas.
Iowa State pivoted to St. Bonaventure transfer Jaren Holmes, and he’s averaging 13.1 points, 3.2 assists and 3.6 rebounds for a 17-win Iowa State squad.
But what if Hunter stayed? It’s probably fair to assume Holmes isn’t a Cyclone, and Hunter’s path to an even bigger role is a lot more projectable at Iowa State than Texas. Does he become the All-Big 12 First Team candidate at Iowa State? I guess we’ll never know.
Illinois and North Carolina were the two schools both involved for Baylor transfer Matthew Mayer and Northwestern transfer Pete Nance. Both made sense on paper for each guy. Both programs had a starting spot with Mayer or Nance’s name engraved on it.
Mayer committed to Illinois May 27.
Nance committed to North Carolina June 18.
Hindsight is 20/20, but North Carolina could really use Mayer’s barrage of 3-pointers right about now. Mayer is shooting 36.8% from 3-point range, and his similarity score on KenPom is Brady Manek. Nance is shooting just 28.2% from downtown, and he’s been more Garrison Brooks than Manek.
Illinois has been overjoyed with Mayer’s production for the last 10 weeks. He’s arguably been their best offensive player while providing real rim protection. Nance is not UNC’s problem, but the lack of perimeter shooting has been the Tar Heels’ Achilles heel all year.
Isiaih Mosley was one of the most polished scorers in the transfer portal. The Missouri State transfer eclipsed 20 points per game last year with the rare 50-40-90 shooting splits.
He opted to pick Missouri and Dennis Gates’ up-tempo offense over Mississippi State.
Missouri has exceeded all expectations in 2022-23, but Mosley has not been a big part of any of it. He’s only played in 14 games this season. He missed half the games this season due to coaching decisions and undisclosed personal issues.
“Weird” doesn’t begin to describe the Mosley-Missouri situation.
It’s clear Mississippi State could desperately use a dynamic lead guard like Mosley. The Bulldogs got off to a terrific 12-0 start, but it’s on the wrong side of the bubble due to its iffy guard play. Paring Mosley with a dynamic post scorer like Tolu Smith would’ve made a ton of sense.
Instead, we’re wondering if and when Mosley will play again this season.
Kevin McCullar’s jumper has not been reliable this year, but he’s been one of the best defensive players in the country. Kansas has played him on shooters like Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer. Bill Self isn’t afraid to let him tangle with big wings or get switched onto 5s. McCullar is an elite connector piece for KU’s small-ball lineup.
The Texas Tech transfer would’ve fixed a ton of Gonzaga’s issues on the defensive end. Mark Few and the Zags have not been able to string together stops this season. 2022-23 is shaping up to be one of Gonzaga’s worst defensive teams since 2007. Is Gonzaga a legitimate NCAA Championship heavyweight with McCullar in the lineup?
Jaelin Llewellyn’s decision to pull off his commitment to Clemson and flip to Michigan has tentacles everywhere in the transfer portal.
Sadly, Llewellyn went down with a season-ending knee injury, and we won’t ever really know if a healthy Llewellyn gets Michigan over the hump.
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